CropSyst 模型在区域冬小麦产量模拟中的应用

Simulation of winter wheat yield based on CropSyst model embedded in BioMa platform

关键词:  生物物理模型应用（BioMa）  作物模型（CropSyst）  冬小麦  产量预测  黄淮海 平原

Key words:  Biophysical model application  CropSys  winter wheat  yield prediction  Huang- Huai-Hai plain

摘要:

【目的】CropSyst 是国际先进的作物生长模拟模型，文章应用欧盟最新开发的基于生 物物理过程的作物模拟平台BioMa（Biophysical model application）中嵌入的改进型作物模型 CropSyst，进行CropSyst 模型中国北方冬小麦模拟适用性评价。【方法】CropSyst 模型初始参 数不适合中国冬小麦作物模拟，该研究基于冬小麦主产区河北省衡水市11 个县（市）的实 测作物、物候、生物量及产量等数据，对CropSyst 模型在中国华北地区的使用进行了一系列 参数的调试、修正和验证，获得了一套CropSyst 模型中适合中国华北小区域范围内冬小麦生 长过程模拟的模型参数，并运用调试的作物参数对2012—2014 年衡水地区冬小麦产量进行 了模型模拟。【结果】冬小麦模拟产量和实测产量线性回归的相关系数平均达到0.97，模拟 性能指数（EF）为0.94，一致性系数（IOA）为0.98。【结论】改进的CropSyst 模型对中国 华北黄淮海平原区冬小麦产量模拟总体效果较好。

Abstract:

［Purpose］CropSyst is an international advanced crop growth simulation model. This study applies improved CropSyst model embedded in BioMa platform to evaluate applicability of winter wheat simulation in North China.［ Method］On account of unsuitability of initial parameters to winter wheat crop simulation in China，this study calibrated，corrected and validated parameters based on some field data（ e.g. measured crops，crop phenology，biomass and production）of main growing areas of winter wheat in China——11 counties（ cities）in Hengshui City，Hebei Province. A set of CropSyst model parameters that are suitable for winter wheat growth simulation in small areas of North China were obtained，which were applied to simulate winter wheat production in Hengshui areas from 2012 to 2014.［ Results］The results showed that the Pearson’s correlation coefficient of CropSyst model in simulating winter wheat yield reached 0.97 averagely. The Modeling Efficiency（ EF）is 0.94 and the Index of Agreement （IOA）is 0.98.［ Conclusion］The improved CropSyst model has good overall results of winter wheat yield simulation in Huang-Huai-Hai plain of North China.