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| 中国黄淮海冬麦区关键生育期——干热风关联特征及
其时空变化分析 |
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张璐云1, 王帅1, 肖风劲2, 王文晴1, 陈晋1,3,4, 崔喜红※1,3,4
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1.北京师范大学地理科学学部遥感科学与工程研究院，北京100875;2.中国气象局国家气候中心，北京 100081;3.北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室，北京100875;4.北京市陆表
遥感数据产品工程技术研究中心，北京100875
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| 摘要: |
| 【目的】结合冬小麦的生育期，分析其在不同生育期内遭遇干热风的时空变化特征。
【方法】文章利用黄淮海冬麦区地面气象台站记录的逐日气温资料、农业气象台站记录的地
面物候资料以及土壤水分数据，提取出1993—2016 年各气象站点发生在抽穗扬花期、灌浆
前期以及灌浆后期的干热风日。设计干热风强度指标k，使用核密度分析方法，分析冬小
麦在不同生育期内遭遇干热风的时空变化规律。最后结合RCP4.5 和RCP8.5 的排放情景下
模拟的温度数据，分别预测黄淮海冬麦区在2030 年、2050 年干热风发生强度的可能趋势。
【结果】（1）1993—2016 年不同生育期内轻、中、重度年累积干热风日均呈增加趋势，其中
尤以中度干热风的增加趋势最为显著。（2）重度干热风发生在灌浆后期的比例明显大于轻、
中度干热风。随着干热风严重程度的增加，其在生育期内分布比例的年际差异逐渐增大。
（3）不同生育期内干热风多发区的空间范围变化规律一致，均存在向东、向南扩大的趋势。
河北、河南以及山东的交界地区始终是干热风的严重威胁区。（4）预测结果表明，在2030
年、2050 年研究区干热风发生强度有增强趋势、多发区范围略有扩大。【结论】1993—2016
年不同生育期内干热风灾害总体表现为增加趋势。预计在2030 年、2050 年干热风灾害发生
强度及影响范围会进一步增强和扩大。应加强对干热风的预警和防御，并在干热风发生后及
时采取补救措施。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 干热风 冬小麦 关键生育期 时空特征 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20200502 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家重点研发计划项目“区域尺度气候变化对小麦生产系统的综合影响评价研究”(2017YFD0300201) |
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| Spatio-temporal correlation between dry-hot wind and winterwheat growth stage and its variation analysis in Huang-Huai-Hairegion of China |
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Zhang Luyun1, Wang Shuai1, Xiao Fengjin2, Wang Wenqing1, Chen Jin1,3,4, Cui Xihong※1,3,4
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1.Institute of Remote Sensing Science and Engineering，Faculty of Geographical Science，Beijing Normal University，Beijing
100875，China;2.National Climate Center，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China;3.State Key
Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology，Faculty of Geographical Science，Beijing Normal University，
Beijing 100875，China;4.Beijing Engineering Research Center for Global Land Remote Sensing Products，Faculty of
Geographical Science，Beijing 100875，China
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| Abstract: |
| ［Purpose］To analyze the spatial and temporal variation patterns of dry-hot wind in
key phenology stages of winter wheat.［ Method］Firstly，we extracted the dry-hot wind days
occurring in the heading-flowering，pre-filling and late-filling stage of winter wheat from 1993 to
2016. Secondly，the dry-hot wind intensity index k was designed，and the spatial and temporal
variation patterns of dry-hot wind in the three growth stages of winter wheat were analyzed using
the kernel density method. Finally，daily temperature estimated by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate
scenario simulations were used to predict the trends of dry-hot wind occurrence intensity in the
winter wheat region of the Huang-Huai-Hai in 2030 and 2050.［ Result］（1）From 1993 to
2016，the annual cumulative dry-hot wind days in mild，medium and severe degree showed an
increasing trend in growth stages of winter wheat，with the most significant increase in medium
degree dry-hot wind.（ 2）The proportion of severe dry-hot wind occurring in the late-filling
stage was significantly greater than that of mild and medium dry-hot wind，and the interannual
variation of dry-hot wind distributed in each growth stages gradually increased.（ 3）The dryhot
wind prone areas showed a pattern of expansion to the east and south. The junction of Hebei，
Henan and Shandong has been the area seriously threatened by dry-hot wind.（ 4）There is a
trend of increasing the intensity and range of dry-hot wind occurrence in the south-central part
of the study area in 2030 and 2050.［ Conclusion］From 1993 to 2016，there is an increasing
trend of dry-hot wind in heading-flowering，pre-filling and late-filling stage of winter wheat. It is
predicted that the occurrence intensity and impact range of dry-hot wind are likely to increase in
2030 and 2050. Therefore，early warning and prevention of dry-hot wind should be strengthened，
and remedial measures should be taken promptly after the occurrence of dry-hot wind. |
| Key words: climate change dry-hot wind winter wheat key phenology stage spatiotemporal analysis |