| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 干旱区土地资源中耕地作为农业生产、生态环境保护和社会稳定之基，掌握耕地变化是合理配置与利用各类土地资源类型，有效保护耕地，实现可持续发展的重要基础。【方法】 文章以新疆南部典型绿洲城市和田市为例，以1990年、2000年、2010年和2018年的Landsat遥感影像为基础，采用耕地变化动态度、耕地利用转移矩阵对和田市耕地时空变化进行分析；经过皮尔逊相关性分析方法对耕地变化的影响因子进行实证分析。【结果】 ①1990－2018年间，和田市建设用地面积增加了58.68 km2，增幅达34.39%；耕地面积减少了47.06 km2，减幅达27.58%；林地、水域和未利用地的面积变动相对比较小，依次为9.23 km2、-7.5 km2和-13.35 km2。②研究期间，有38 km2的耕地被城市建设用地所占用，耕地对城市空间扩展的贡献度最大。③皮尔逊相关性分析结果表明，耕地变化与人口和GDP之间具有较强的负相关关系，因此，人口增长和经济发展是导致和田市耕地面积减少的重要原因。同时，自然因素和政策因素在耕地变化有一定的促进与保护作用。【结论】 人口规模增加和经济增长会导致建设用地面积大幅度增加，最终表现为城市空间扩展日益显著，而这些最终以占用大量有限的耕地来实现。 |
| 关键词: 遥感 GIS 耕地 驱动因素 和田市 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20220601 |
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| Study on the change of farmland and its driving factors in recent 28 years of Hotan city using remote sensing and GIS |
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Nuerbiye Aobuliaisan1, Ayituerxun Shamuxi1, Bumairiyemu Maimaiti1, Zibibula Simayi2, Alimujiang Kasimu3
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1.School of Management，Xinjiang Agricultural University，Urumqi 830052，China;2.College of Resource and Environmental Science，Xinjiang University，Urumqi 830046，China;3.School of Geographic Science and Tourism，Xinjiang Normal University，Urumqi 830054，China
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| Abstract: |
| Purpose In arid regions，cultivated land is the base of agricultural production，ecological environment protection and social stability. Mastering the change of cultivated land is an important basis for rational allocation and utilization of various types of land resources，effective protection of cultivated land and sustainable development.Method This study takes Hotan city，a typical oasis city in southern Xinjiang. Based on Landsat remote sensing images in 1990，2000，2010 and 2018，the spatiotemporal changes of cultivated land in Hotan city were analyzed by using the dynamic attitude of cultivated land change and the transfer matrix. The Pearson correlation analysis method was used to analyze the influencing factors of cultivated land change.Result ①From 1990 to 2018，the area of construction land in Hotan city increased by 58.68 km2，an increase of 34.39%；The area of cultivated land decreased by 47.06 km2 or 27.58%. The area changes of forest land，water area and unused land are relatively small，which are 9.23 km2，-7.5 km2 and -13.35 km2. ②During the study period，38 km2 of cultivated land was occupied by urban construction land，and cultivated land contributed the most to urban expansion. ③The Pearson correlation analysis results show that cultivated land change has a strong negative correlation with population and GDP. Therefore，population growth and economic development are important reasons for the decrease. At the same time，natural factors and policy factors have a certain role in promoting and protecting cultivated land change.Conclusion The increase of population size and economic growth will lead to a substantial increase in the area of construction land，which will eventually be reflected in the increasingly significant expansion of urban area，which will eventually be achieved by occupying a large number of limited cultivated land. |
| Key words: remote sensing GIS farmland driving factor Hotan City |
