| 摘要: |
| 【目的】 探讨基于不同气候变化情景下玉米品种的选育和布局，对极端气候变化下的粮食高产稳产具有重要意义。【方法】 文章构建了低温、高温、干旱等玉米风险评估模型，对东北地区玉米种植的低温干旱高温风险等级进行评估，制定风险区划；基于风险区划，对未来东北地区玉米适宜品种的变化和空间布局进行分析。【结果】 （1）采取种植环境空间型聚类方法，东北地区可划分为9个生态亚区。（2）在二氧化碳浓度为4.5（RCP4.5）和二氧化碳浓度为8.5（RCP8.5）两种情境下，预计2021—2026年东北地区各生态亚区玉米的活动积温变化不大，熟期品种也相差不大，低温冷害风险在V-3和V-5生态亚区存在一定差异；干旱程度整体上由东向西逐渐增强；高温风险主要处于无风险和低风险，少部分地区存在中风险。（3）未来情景下，由于温度升高、活动积温增加，东北地区玉米适宜种植品种均在一定程度上向更加晚熟转变。【结论】 应重点关注这些地区受耕作方式的影响，选择耐低温干旱的玉米品种或者调整玉米播种时期，规避或减缓气象风险。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 玉米品种 保护性耕作 东北地区 |
| DOI：10.12105/j.issn.1672-0423.20230505 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:重点研发项目：新一代人工智能国家科技重大专项（2021ZD0113701） |
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| Risk assessment and variety demand analysis of maize in Northeast China under climate change |
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Chen Yiling1,2, Zan Xuli1,3, Mou Yanhua1, Liu Zhe1, Li Shaoming1
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1.College of land Sciences and Technology，China Agricultural University，Beijing 100193，China;2.Jiangxi Institute of Land and Space Investigation and Planning，Nanchang，Jiangxi 330025，China;3.Beijing Water Science and Technology Institute，Beijing 100048，China
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| Abstract: |
| ［Purpose］ To explore the breeding and layout of corn varieties under different climate change scenarios，which is of great significance for high and stable grain yield under extreme climate change. Therefore，it is particularly important to accurately guide the breeding and distribution of maize varieties and respond to meteorological risks positively.［Method］ The paper constructed corn risk assessment models for low temperature，high temperature，and drought，evaluated the risk level of low temperature，drought，and high temperature for corn cultivation in Northeast China，and formulated risk zoning. Based on risk zoning，the changes and spatial layout of suitable maize varieties in the future in Northeast China were analyzed.［Result］ （1）Using the spatial clustering method of planting environment，the Northeast could be divided into 9 ecological sub regions. （2）Under two scenarios of carbon dioxide concentration of 4.5（RCP4.5）and carbon dioxide concentration of 8.5（RCP8.5），from 2021 to 2026，there was not much change in the active accumulated temperature of corn in various ecological sub regions of Northeast China in the future，and there was not much difference in the maturity period of varieties. There were certain differences in the risk of low temperature and cold damage in the V-3 and V-5 ecological sub regions. The overall degree of drought was gradually increasing from east to west. The risk of high temperature mainly lied in risk-free and low-risk，with a small number of areas having medium risk. （3）In the future scenario，due to the increase in temperature and active accumulated temperature，suitable corn varieties for cultivation in Northeast China would shift towards later maturity to a certain extent.［Conclusion］ Attention should be paid to the influence of farming methods in these areas，and the selection of maize varieties resistant to low temperature and drought or adjustment of maize sowing time should be made to avoid or mitigate meteorological risks. |
| Key words: climate change maize varieties conservation tillage Northeast China |
