基于MaxEnt模型的宜昌市柑橘潜在适生区预测

Prediction of potential suitable habitat for citrus in Yichang City based on MaxEnt model

关键词:  潜在适生区  柑橘  MaxEnt模型  宜昌

Key words:  potential suitable area  citrus  MaxEnt model  Yichang City

摘要:

【目的】 科学预测宜昌市柑橘（包括椪柑、橙子和蜜橘）的潜在适生区并划分为不同等级，为宜昌市柑橘的物种可持续发展提供参考。【方法】 文章实地调查获取椪柑、橙子和蜜橘样点后，借助最大熵模型（Maximum Entropy Model，MaxEnt）预测宜昌市柑橘潜在适生区，并分析环境因子与椪柑、橙子、蜜橘生长的响应关系。【结果】 （1）对初步确定的气候、土壤、地形等31个环境因子进行贡献率分析和共线性诊断，筛选出了影响柑橘潜在分布主要限制因子；利用MaxEnt模型，经受试者工作特征曲线检验模型精度后，预测了椪柑和橙子的潜在适生区范围，主要分布在秭归、五峰、长阳县城；最冷月最低气温、到道路的距离是最主要影响椪柑和橙子分布的因子；（2）预测了蜜橘的潜在适生区范围，主要集中在枝江、当阳、宜都、猇亭、和夷陵区这一带；（3）到道路的距离、高程、年平均最低气温、坡向和土壤有机碳含量是最主要影响蜜橘分布的因子。【结论】 研究结果可为宜昌市的椪柑、橙子和蜜橘的种植区域选择作参考性的作用。

Abstract:

Purpose To scientifically predict the potential suitable habitats for ponkans，oranges，and tangerines in Yichang City，and provide a reference for the sustainable development of these citrus species in the region.Method After conducting field surveys to collect sample sites for pomkans，oranges and tangerines，the Maximum Entropy Model（MaxEnt）was used to predict the potential suitable habitats for citrus species in Yichang City. The response relationship between environmental factors and the growth of ponkans，oranges and tangerines was also analyzed.Result （1）Contribution analysis and collinearity diagnosis were performed on 31 initially identified environmental factors such as climate，soil，and terrain. Furthermore，this analysis enabled us to identify the primary limiting factors affecting the potential distribution of citrus. The MaxEnt software was utilized to assess the accuracy of the model via the receiver operating characteristic（ROC）curve. The results indicated that the predicted range of potentially suitable growing areas for ponkans and oranges was mainly centered in Zigui，Wufeng，and Changyang counties. Among the influencing factors，the minimum temperature during the coldest month and the distance to the road emerged were found to be the most significant determinants of the distribution of these citrus fruits.（2）The predicted potential suitable areas for tangerines were primarily concentrated in Zhijiang，Dangyang，Yidu，Xiaoting and Yiling districts. （3）Among the influencing factors，the distance to the road，elevation，average annual minimum temperature，slope and soil organic carbon content stand out as the most crucial determinants affecting the distribution of tangerines.Conclusion The findings of this research provide valuable insights for the selection of optimal planting areas for ponkans，oranges and tangerines in Yichang City，and serve as a reliable reference for future agricultural planning and decision making.