湖南省水稻产量时空特征及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Rice Production in Hunan Province

关键词:  水稻  时空变化  影响因素  地理探测器  湖南省

Key words:  rice  spatiotemporal variation  influencing factors  geographic detector  Hunan Province

摘要:

【目的】湖南省2022年水稻种植面积位居全国首位，产量位列全国第二，保障全省水稻稳定生产对维护国家粮食安全具有重要意义。【方法】考虑到县域水稻生产数据的可获取性，文章基于2011—2022年湖南省县域水稻生产相关数据，运用全局空间自相关、热点分析、地理探测器模型等方法研究全省水稻产量的时空格局特征及影响因素。【结果】（1）2011—2022年，湖南省水稻总产量与播种面积均呈先升后降的变化趋势，整体历经3个阶段。（2）水稻产量空间集聚特征显著，呈现“北热西冷”格局；高产区稳定分布于北部洞庭湖平原，低产区集中于西部山区。（3）湖南省水稻产量受多种因素综合影响，影响因子间大多表现出双因子增强关系。水稻播种面积是直接影响湖南省水稻产量空间异质性的因子，农田面积、有效灌溉面积及乡村人口数量是重要影响因子。【结论】未来的研究和政策制定应综合考虑多因素的交互影响，进一步优化水稻生产布局，提升粮食产量并增强其稳定性。

Abstract:

[Purpose] In 2022, Hunan Province had the largest rice cultivation area and the second-highest rice production of all the provinces producing rice in China, making it critical to keep stable rice output in Hunan Province for national food security. [Method] Based on county-level data availability, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns and influencing factors of rice production in Hunan Province from 2011 to 2022 with the methods of global spatial autocorrelation, hotspot analysis, and the Geodetector Model. [Result] (1) From 2011 to 2022, both the total rice production and planting area in Hunan Province exhibited a trend of first increasing and then decreasing , with three distinct stages. (2) Rice production showed significant spatial clustering, characterized by a pattern of hot north and cold west. High-production areas were consistently concentrated in the Dongting Lake Plain in the north, whereas low-production areas were mainly in the mountainous western regions. (3) Multiple factors influence rice production, most of which exhibit interactive enhancement effects. Cultivation area is the primary determinant of spatial heterogeneity, and farmland area, effective irrigation area, and rural population also play crucial roles. [Conclusion] Future research and policy efforts should consider the interplay of multiple factors, optimize spatial production patterns, and enhance both yield and production stability.