农村空心化老龄化背景下的智慧农业技术推广：理论与实证

Promoting smart agricultural technology against the background of rural hollowing and aging：Theory and empirical evidence

关键词:  农技推广  智慧农业  技术采纳  农村空心化  老龄化

Key words:  agricultural technology promotion  smart agriculture  technology adoption  rural hollowing  aging

摘要:

【目的】 为破解农村空心化、老龄化背景下智慧农业技术“需求迫切、采纳困难”的现实困境，重构适配老年农户与乡村人口结构的技术推广机制，助力农业现代化与粮食安全保障。【方法】 文章采用理论框架构建与典型案例实证相结合的研究方法，首先搭建“人口结构变迁连带产生经营困境，进而催生技术需求，从而客观上要求重构基层农技推广重构”的因果分析链条；之后，以日本兵库县猪名川町智能农机推广为案例，开展经验拆解与验证。【结果】 （1）农村空心化与老龄化并非智慧农业技术推广的外部背景，而是决定推广逻辑、成本结构与制度路径的根本性约束条件。老年农户在学习能力、数字素养、风险承受力上与智慧农业技术门槛存在显著差距，形成“需求越迫切、采纳越困难”的推广悖论。（2）传统以技术供给为中心、单向线性输送的推广模式已难以适配乡村人口结构现实，必须转向适老化、场景化、协同化和闭环化的新型推广范式。（3）技术推广重构需遵循五大核心逻辑：以需求场景化为起点、以循环适配为机制、以多元共治为主体、以能力扶助为方式和以可持续采纳为评价标准。【结论】 智慧农业技术推广必须由技术供给导向转向用户适配导向，构建适老化、场景化、协同化和闭环化的推广体系，从而有效突破人口结构约束，实现技术长效落地。

Abstract:

[Purpose] To address the practical dilemma of "urgent demand yet difficult adoption" of smart agricultural technologies against the backdrop of rural hollowing and aging，this study aims to reconstruct a technology extension mechanism that adapts to the demographic structure of elderly farmers and rural populations，thereby supporting agricultural modernization and food security.[Method] This study employed a research approach combining theoretical framework construction with typical case study validation. First，it established a causal analysis chain in which "changes in population structure led to operational difficulties，which in turn generated demand for technology，thereby necessitating the reconstruction of grassroots agricultural technology extension". Subsequently，it conducted an empirical analysis and validation using the case of smart agricultural machinery extension in Inagawa Town，Hyogo Prefecture，Japan.[Result] （1） Rural hollowing and aging were not merely external backgrounds for the promotion of smart agricultural technologies，but rather fundamental constraints that determine the logic，cost structure，and institutional pathways of technology extension. A significant gap existed between elderly farmers′ learning capacity，digital literacy，and risk tolerance on the one hand，and the technological threshold of smart agriculture on the other，giving rise to an extension paradox of "the more urgent the demand，the more difficult the adoption".（2） The traditional extension model，characterized by technology supply as its center and a one-way linear delivery approach，had become increasingly incompatible with the realities of rural demographic structures. A transition towards a new elderly-oriented，context-specific，collaborative，and closed-loop extension paradigm was required. （3） The reconstruction of technology extension must adhere to five core logics：taking demand contextualization as the starting point，employing cyclical adaptation as the mechanism，engaging multi-stakeholder governance as the principal actor，utilizing capability assistance as the approach，and adopting sustainable adoption as the evaluation criterion.[Conclusion] The promotion of smart agricultural technologies must shift from a technology-supply orientation toward a user-adaptation orientation，establishing an extension system that is elderly-oriented，context-specific，collaborative，and closed-loop，thereby effectively overcoming the constraints imposed by demographic structures and achieving long-term technology implementation.