中部地区耕地压力测度及时空格局演变

SPATIOTEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF CULTIVATED LAND PRESSURE IN CENTRAL CHINA

关键词:  耕地压力指数  莫兰指数  中部地区  时空格局  演变

Key words:  cultivated land pressure index  Moran''s I  central China  spatiotemporal pattern  evolution

摘要:

[目的]中部地区是我国重要的粮食主产区,在快速城镇化进程中面临耕地资源约束趋紧与粮食安全保障的双重挑战。本文旨在揭示2014—2023年中部地区耕地压力的时空演变特征,为区域耕地保护政策制定提供科学依据。[方法]基于中部六省88个地级市面板数据,运用修正耕地压力指数模型测算耕地压力水平,采用探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)解析其空间关联特征与演变规律。[结果]①时序上,区域整体耕地压力处于无压力状态,但省际差异显著,部分城市耕地压力严峻,粮食安全问题突出；②空间上,整体呈现“西高东低”分布格局,省会城市及丘陵山地耕地压力相对较高；③时序演变表现呈波动下降态势,表明区域耕地保护成效初步显现；④空间演进呈显著正向空间自相关,“低—低”集聚类型占主导地位,“高—高”集聚范围逐步收缩,空间集聚效应明显。[结论]建议构建松紧结合的耕地管控机制,提升耕地供给能力,实施差异化耕地保护策略,优化农业生产条件,科学引导城镇化与工矿用地布局,提升耕地利用抗风险能力。在灾害易发区构建农业气象灾害防控体系,切实保障国家粮食安全。

Abstract:

Central China is a major grain-producing region in the country, facing dual challenges of tightening cultivated land resource constraints and food security guarantees during rapid urbanization. This study aims to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of cultivated land pressure in central China from 2014 to 2023, providing a scientific basis for regional cultivated land protection policy formulation. Based on panel data from 88 prefecture-level cities in six central provinces, the modified cultivated land pressure index model was used to measure cultivated land pressure levels, and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) was employed to analyze spatial correlation characteristics and evolution patterns. The results are as follows:① Temporally, the overall regional cultivated land pressure was in a no-pressure state, but provincial differences were significant, with severe cultivated land pressure in some cities and prominent food security issues; ② Spatially, an overall pattern of "higher in the west, lower in the east" emerged, with relatively higher cultivated land pressure in provincial capitals and hilly-mountainous areas; ③ Temporal evolution showed a fluctuating downward trend, indicating that regional cultivated land protection efforts were beginning to show results; ④ Spatial evolution displayed significant positive spatial auto correlation, with "low-low" clustering being the dominant type, the range of "high-high" clustering gradually shrinking, and spatial clustering effects being pronounced. It is recommended to establish a flexible cultivated land control mechanism that balances strictness and adaptability, enhance cultivated land supply capacity, implement differentiated cultivated land protection strategies, optimize agricultural production conditions, scientifically guide urbanization and industrial-mining land layout, and strengthen the risk resilience of cultivated land utilization. In disaster-prone areas, an agricultural meteorological disaster prevention and control system should be established to effectively ensure national food security.