甘肃省各地市人均GDP的马尔可夫预测及变动分析

MARKOV FORECAST AND CHANGE ANALYSIS ON AVERAGE PER CAPITA GDP OF VARIOUS PREFECTURES AND CITIES IN GANSU PROVINCE

关键词:  人均GDP  马尔可夫链  预测

Key words:  average per capita GDP,Markov chain,forecast

摘要:

根据甘肃的实际情况和国内比较普遍的观点,将其14个地市的人均GDP情况划分为5种状态,然后使用Markov方法建立一个预测其各地市人均GDP在10年和20年后发展状况的分析模型,利用此模型对甘肃各地市人均GDP的演化和变化情况进行了科学的分析和预测。它对研究甘肃各地市的经济发展和保持各地市经济发展的均衡,实施宏观调控具有一定的参考价值。

Abstract:

This paper divides the average per capita GDP of the 14 prefecture and cities into 5 groups according to the actual conditions of Gansu and the domestic view points at large.Then establishes an analytical model by Markov method for forecasting the average per capita GDP of the 14 prefecture and cities after 10 and 20 years' development.Scientific analysis and forecast are conducted on the evolvement and changes of the average per capita GDP of the various prefecture and cities by this model.It is of certain reference value in studying the economic development of various prefectures and cities,for keeping balanced economic development,and for implementing adjustment and control from the macro point of view.