江苏沿海耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化与耕地压力分区分析

Analysis on Dynamic Changes of Cultivated Land-Grain -Population Complex System and Cultivated Land Pressure Regionalization in the Coastal Region of Jiangsu Province

关键词:  耕地-粮食-人口复合系统  耕地压力指数  耕地压力分区  江苏沿海

Key words:  Cultivated land-grain-population complex system  Pressure index of cultivated land  Cultivated land pressure regionalization  Coastal region of Jiangsu Province

摘要:

本文在分析江苏沿海1999～2007年耕地-粮食-人口复合系统动态变化的基础上，计算其3区14县（市）耕地压力指数（K）并划定耕地压力分区，以进一步分析K值区域变化特点及其原因。研究结果表明：（1）1999～2007年江苏沿海耕地面积波动减少，人口持续增长，人均耕地面积不断减少，粮食总产量及人均粮食产量开始阶段持续降低，并在2003年跌入低谷，至2007年有所回升。（2）根据耕地压力分区结果，从江苏沿海整体分析，K值呈现2003年>2007年>1999年的特点；从区域地市级分析，K值大致上呈现南通沿海>连云港沿海>盐城沿海的特点；具体到各县（市、区）耕地资源承受压力变化，东海县等7个县K值持续最小，南通市区和连云港市区K值持续最大，盐城市区等4个县、区2003年K值较1999年大幅增加但至2007年已回落，通州市等3市K值较大且呈增加趋势，赣榆县K值变化幅度最大。文章最后还探讨了江苏沿海不同区域的耕地-粮食-人口调控措施。

Abstract:

Based on the analysis of dynamic changes of cultivated land-grain-population complex system between 1999 and 2007, this paper calculated the pressure index of cultivated land of 3 districts and 14 counties(or county-level cities) in the coastal region of Jiangsu Province, and divided it into four regions to further analyze its characters and driving factors. Results showed that: during the year of 1999~2007, area of cultivated land fluctuated in a decreased way, while the population kept on increasing, so the area of cultivated land per capita decreased continuously. The total grain yield and per capita grain yield decreased in the beginning and hit a low point in 2003, then increased in 2007; the pressure index of cultivated land(K value) showed the features of 2003 > 2007 > 1999 when analyzing the coastal region of Jiangsu Province as a whole. The K value showed the charicteristics of Nantong coastal region > Lianyungang > Yancheng when analyzing the characteristics of cities When making a concrete analysis of the counties (county-level cities, districts), the K value in seven counties, such as Donghai county, was kept in a lowest level, while Nantong and Lianyungang districts were the largest. The other four counties and districts, such as Yancheng district, rose with a big margin between 1999 and 2003, and then rolled back in 2007. Three county-level cities, such as Tongzhou tended to increase. The variation scope of Ganyu county was the largest. Finally, the paper discussed about measures for controlling cultivated land-grain-population complex system in different coastal regions of Jiangsu Province.