| 摘要: |
| 利用基于灾情数据的评估方法对全国及31个省份的农业自然灾害风险进行评估，根据农作物灾害 风险的概率密度和累积分布函数计算其年均损失率，并据此进行区划。研究结果表明:（1）在我国31个 省（市、自治区）中，有16个省份平均每年的农业因灾损失率都在10%以上，全国农业因灾年均损失率 为12.9%;（2）干旱和洪涝是导致我国农业损失的两个主要险种，分别占到总损失的51%和27%;（3） 我国自然灾害各险种的高风险区均相对集中，建议政府采取针对性措施降低区域灾损风险。 |
| 关键词: 农业风险 自然灾害 风险评估 风险区划 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20110306 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:该研究受到了国家“十一五”科技支撑重点项目“农产品数量安全智能分析与预警的关键技术及平台研究（编号:2009BADA9B01）”、 农业部948项目“农业生产风险评估与区划系统引进和开发（2010-Z5）”和中央公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目（2010-J-10） 的联合资助 |
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| ASSESSMENT AND REGIONAL PLANNING OF CHINESE AGRICULTURAL NATURAL DISASTER RISKS |
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Zhang Qiao1,2, Wang Ke1,2
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1.Agricultural Information Institute of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;2.Key Laboratory of Digital Agricultural Early-warning Technology， MOA， Beijing China， 100081
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| Abstract: |
| A kind of risk assessment approach which based on disastrous data was used to assess the agricultural hazard risk of China and its 31 provinces in this paper， the probability density and CDF（cumulative distribution function） of agricultural crop hazard risk were used to calculate the average annual loss， and then the risk zoning was conducted based on the agricultural annual loss. It was concluded that: 1） the average annual loss caused by natural hazard in 16 out of 31 provinces of China were all more than 10%， which was 12.9% for the whole Chi- na; 2） drought and flood were the most serious natural hazards for Chinese agriculture， which led to 51% and 27% of agricultural loss; 3） the high risk regions of agricultural hazards were relative concentration， which was benefit for Government to manage the risk. |
| Key words: agricultural risk natural hazard risk assessment risk zoning |
