| 摘要: |
| 该文对1961～2009年中美两国谷物产量增减变化及年际间波动进行了对比分析，中国谷物增产幅 度大且增产时段多，美国谷物增产幅度稍小且增减时段相当;美国谷物产量年际波动幅度比中国的大，美 国谷物产量年际波动一成以上的年份也比中国多。进而对比分析了谷物产量波动变化趋势，中国谷物产量 增长快于美国，美国比中国谷物产量波动的峰谷落差大。最后分析了中美谷物产量波动差异的主要原因， 中美两国谷物产量波动的首要因素是自然灾害，但国情最终决定了中美两国谷物产量波动的特点及其差异。 |
| 关键词: 中国 美国 谷物产量 波动 对比分析 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20110514 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:该文章得到农业部农业信息技术重点实验室、我国“十二五”畜产品市场分析研究、农产品市场流通与区域布局优化、我国粮食产量波动分析项目支持 |
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| CEREAL PRODUCTION CHANGES AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE INTER-ANNUAL FLUCTUATIONS IN CHINA AND THE USA |
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Fu Youlan1, Qu Baoxiang2, Li Gang2, Zhang Hua2, Qiu Li2
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1.Department of Agriculture National Agricultural Technology Extension and Service Center Beijing 100026;2.Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning， Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Beijing 100081
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| Abstract: |
| This paper 1961-2009 cereal production in China and the U.S. changes and changes in inter-annu- al fluctuations in a comparison between analysis. China's grain yield increase is large and increasing production time and more American grain yield increased very slightly smaller and the changes in time; fluctuations than large， in- ter-annual fluctuations in cereal production in the United States into more than one year are more than China. Further comparative analysis of the fluctuations in cereal production trends， China's grain production grows faster than the United States， China's grain output volatility than the large gap between peak and valley. Finally， analysis of the fluctuations in Sino-US differences in the main cereal production， cereal production fluctuations in the two countries is the primary factor in natural disasters， but the final decision of the United States and China's national conditions grain yield volatility characteristics and differences. |
| Key words: China USA Cereal production Fluctuation Comparative analysis |
