| 摘要: |
| 该文基于福建省泰宁县2003～2008年土地变更数据，运用马尔科夫链对该县2020年土地利用结 构进行了预测。认为土地转移概率矩阵的时间尺度应该加长，并根据数据特点以6年作为一个土地用途流 转时间段，以6年转移概率矩阵的乘积构建预测所用的转移概率矩阵，并对预测结果的合理性进行了分析。 另外，论文利用马尔科夫链预测土地利用结构的所得结果对规划中土地利用平衡表的编制提供了一定帮助。 |
| 关键词: 土地利用结构 预测 马尔科夫链 转移概率矩阵 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20120204 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| THE SETTING AND APPLICATION OF MARKOV PROBABILITY MATRIX IN LAND TRANSFER |
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Zhao Jinghui1, Li Tingzhi2, Zhang Hua2, Liang Jinshe2
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1.Research Center of Information & Economic， Chinese Academy of Fishery Economics， Beijing 100141;2.School of Geography， Beijing Normal University， Beijing 100875
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the data from the soil change of Taining in Fujian province from 2003 to 2008， this paper used the Markov chain to forecast the land use structure change in the year 2020. The results showed that it was necessa- ry to prolong the time span of the transition probability matrix. Six years were regarded as one period for land trans- fer and the product of transition probability matrix of six years composed the transition probability matrix which was used in this paper， finally the reasonability of the forecast result was analyzed which could provide reference for compiling balance tables of land use. |
| Key words: land use structure forecast Markov Chain transition probability matrix |
