| 摘要: |
| 该文基于德州11县市1957～2009年降水量及全市范围内的所有旱涝灾害资料，分析了年降水量 及旱涝灾害变化趋势，年平均降水量555.1mm，年降水量呈减少趋势，结果表明，平均每10年减少 18.3mm。年平均旱灾2.5次，旱灾呈增加趋势，平均每10年增加0.235次，53年降水量与干旱次数的相 关系数为-0.39，呈负相关。年平均涝灾2.5次，涝灾呈缓慢增加趋势，平均每10年增加0.05次，主要 是由于特大暴雨等极端灾害性天气气候事件增加造成的，53年降水量与涝灾次数的相关系数为0.67，呈正 相关。 |
| 关键词: 德州 降水量 旱灾 涝灾 变化趋势 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20120305 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目: |
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| ANALYSIS OF CHANGE TRENDS IN PRECIPITATON AND DISASTERS OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS IN DEZHOU CITY |
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Shi Huilan, Chang Ping, Chen Chengguo, Yang Yuxia, Li Zhengliang
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Bureau of Dezhou meteorology of Shandong province，Dezhou 253078
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| Abstract: |
| Based on the precipitation and all the disasters of droughts and floods in 11 counties in DeZhou from 1957 to 2009， this paper analyzed the trends of annual precipitation and disasters of droughts and floods. The re- sults showed that the average rainfall was 555.1mm and showed a decreasing trend with a decrease of 18.3mm ev- ery 10 years. The annual drought disaster happened 2.5 times and showed an increase trend with an increase of 0.235 times every 10 years， the correlation coefficient between annual rainfall and droughts was -0.39. The an- nual flooding disaster happened 2.5 times and showed an increase trend with an increase of 0.05 times every 10 years due to extreme weather events increase. the correlation coefficient between annual rainfall and flooding was 0.67. |
| Key words: Dezhou precipitation drought disaster flooding disaster change trend |
