| 摘要: |
| 论文对全国耕地面积、耕地复种指数、粮食作物与非粮作物比例关系、粮食作物单产等变化态势 进行了系统分析。结果表明，到2020年全国耕地面积有望保住2亿hm2红线，但难度很大;粮食作物面积比重过低或过高均不利于粮食安全，全国粮食作物面积比重宜保持在66%～69%，到2020年全国粮食总产量为5.7亿～6.5亿t。 |
| 关键词: 耕地资源 耕地红线 粮食安全 粮食生产能力 中国 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20120602 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家“十二五”科技支撑资助项目（2012BAD05B01-6） |
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| ANALYSIS FOR ARABLE LAND RESOURCES AND ITS GRAIN PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN CHINA |
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Chen Yinjun, Yi Xiaoyan, Fang Linna, Li Qianqian
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Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning， Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences， Beijing 100081， China
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| Abstract: |
| The paper systematically analyzed the change trend of the arable land area， multiple cropping indexes， crop yields per unit area and the proportion between food crops and non-food crops. The results showed that the arable land area by 2020 can be hardly kept in the red line of 120 million ha. The too low or high proportion of the crop area was neither good for food security. The crop area should be maintained at 66% to 69% of the total arable land， and the country's total grain output was 570～ 650 million t in 2020. |
| Key words: arable land resources arable land red line food security food production capacity China |
