| 摘要: |
| 农业既是温室气体的来源，同时又受到气候变化的巨大影响。按照目前学术界碳排放的计算方 法，通过化肥施用量、农药施用量等4个主要投入要素计算得到我国农业碳排放量。对农业碳排放与农业 总产值的对数值进行分析，发现二者之间存在协整关系。进行协整回归分析可以看出，农业碳排放量与农 业总产值之间有着密切的正相关关系，其中农业产出每增长1%，导致农业碳排放增长0.69%。据此提出 了引进土地利用新模式、实施保护性耕作、推广施肥新技术、发展农作物固碳技术等对策建议。 |
| 关键词: 农业碳排放 农业产值 协整分析 低碳农业 |
| DOI：10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20130310 |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:基金项目:文章由国家农业信息化工程技术研究中心的开放课题“基于物联网的农业碳排放计量及其相关因素分析”（KF2013W48- 056）;山东省重大课题“基于物联网的森林、农田和水域碳源/汇遥感测量技术研究”（ 2011GG21020）以及“山东省三农问题软科学研究 基地”的资助 |
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| RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS AND AGRICULTURAL GRROSS VALUE OF OUTPUT |
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Li Ying1, Ge Yanxiang1, Liang Yong2
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1.College of Economics and Management， Shandong Agricultural University， Tai'an Shandong 271018， China;2.College of Information Science and Engineering， Shandong Agricultural University， Tai'an Shandong 271018， China
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| Abstract: |
| Agriculture is one of the sources of greenhouse gases and meanwhile is greatly affected by climate change. According to the present calculating procedure of carbon emissions， this paper calculated the agricultural carbon emissions in China based on four main input factors（chemical fertilizer， pesticide， irrigation and diesel）. By the analysis of the logarithms of agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural gross value of output， co-integra- tion relation between them was founded. It had a very closely positive correlation between agricultural carbon emis- sions and agricultural gross value of output by co-integration regression analysis. One percent growth of agricultur- al output will lead to 0.69 percent growth of agricultural carbon emissions. On the basis of the above results， it put forward some suggestions and countermeasures such as new land-use patterns， protective cultivation， new fertili- zing technologies， crops sequestration technologies and so on. |
| Key words: agricultural carbon emissions agricultural value of output co-integration analysis low-carbon agricul- ture |
