我国粮食“九连增”主要因素贡献浅析

ANALYSIS OF THE MAJOR CONTRIBUTION FACTORS OF NINE-YEAR CONSECUTIVE INCREASING OF CHINA′S GRAIN

关键词:  粮食 “九连增” 影响因素 贡献率

Key words:  grain  nine-year consecutive increasing  influencing factors  contribution rate

摘要:

该文对我国粮食近9年来连续增产（以下简称:粮食“九连增”）现象，进行了定性定量分析， 包括对粮食、三大主粮及其它杂粮增产率，粮食总产趋势进行了研究，定量分析了粮食播种面积和单产两 方面因素在粮食“九连增”过程中的贡献率大小。研究发现:粮食“九连增”主要得益于单产的大幅增 加;单产和播种面积这两方面因素在三大主粮的增产过程中贡献大小存在一定差异，其它杂粮的增产中单 产增产贡献率较大。“九连增”期间，现行的一系列农业生产关键技术补贴政策对粮食单产的稳步提高作 用显著;而农业生产促进性补贴及粮食最低收购价等一系列政策对提高农民种粮积极性扩大粮食播种面积 作用明显。笔者认为继续加大各类直接或间接补贴政策的补贴力度，是提高粮食单产稳定粮食播种面积的 有效措施，同时应做好粮食市场的调控工作，防控市场风险，保障粮农利益。

Abstract:

This paper quantitatively analyzed the nine-year consecutive increase in China's grain production which included the grain， three staple grains and others， and the contribution rates of grain sown area and per unit area yield during the past nine years. The results showed that an increase in per unit area yield had significant contribu- tion to the nine-year consecutive increase in China's grain yield. The contribution rate of per unit area yield of other grain crops was larger than that of sown area. During nine-year period， a series of subsidies policies including agri- cultural promote production subsidies policy， minimum purchase price of grain and other related policies played an important role in improving enthusiasm of the farmers to grow grain crop and increase grain yield. The author con- sidered that it was an effective method to continuously increase direct or indirect subsidies for increasing grain sown area and per unit area yield. Meanwhile， The government should be prepared for controlling market risks， regula- ting the grain market and protecting the food and agriculture interests.