基于SSM的山东省粮食生产变化研究

ANALYSIS OF THE CHANGE OF GRAIN PRODUCTION OF SHANDONG PROVINCE BASED ON SSM

关键词:  粮食安全 SSM 增长率 山东省

Key words:  Food security  SSM  growth rate  Shandong province

摘要:

山东省作为粮食主产区的13个粮食生产大省之一，在满足区域粮食需求和为国家提供余粮中作用 重大，为明确山东省粮食生产结构中不同作物的变化特点和竞争优势，文章利用偏离-份额分析模型对山 东省的粮食生产变化进行研究。分析结果表明:（1）山东省粮食作物增长的积极因素主要还是国家粮食整 体增长的大背景;主要作物小麦、玉米均具有结构性发展优势，但不具区域竞争优势。主要原因是山东小 麦的单产增长率低于全国，玉米播种面积增长率低于全国。（2）山东省粮食作物单产和粮食作物播面比重 在全国均处较高水平，未来如农业技术条件没有重大突破，作物比较效益没有重大变化，山东省粮食产量 继续增长将较为困难。

Abstract:

As one of the main grain production area in China， Shandong province played an important role in food security. In order to understand the characteristic of various crop production and competitive advantage， this article analyzed the production and structure of grain of Shandong province based on SSM. The results showed that :（1） the positive factor promoting the grain production mainly based on the overall growth of the national backgrounds. Compared with the national growth rate， the main crops in Shandong province such as wheat and maize were lack of regional competitive advantage due to the low growth rate in yield per unit for winter wheat and low sowing area growth rate for summer maize;（2） The increase of grain production will face more challenges in future if there are not breakthrough in agricultural technology conditions and comparative efficiency in crops.