河南省水稻气象灾害因子分析 及主要灾害发生区划研究

ANALYSIS OF RICE METEOROLOGICAL DISASTER FACTORS AND MAJOR DISASTER REGIONALIZATION IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  水稻 气象灾害 区划 因子分析 河南省

Key words:  rice  meteorological disaster  regionalization  factor analysis  Henan province

摘要:

利用直线滑动平均法去除水稻趋势产量，从中提取气象产量，并与相邻气象站名的数据进行相关 分析，找出与气象产量相关度较高的气象灾害因子，进一步利用线性多元回归的方法建立水稻产量预测模 型，确定影响水稻产量的主要气象灾害因子。结果表明，分蘖前期平均气温、抽穗开花期平均气温、抽穗 开花期日照时数、分蘖后期至抽穗开花期降水量对研究区水稻产量影响较大，可分别作为低温冷害、高温 热害、阴雨寡照及干旱发生的区划指标。河南省内，黄河沿岸即开封、濮阳一带属相对较易发生低温冷害 地区，信阳淮河以南地区属相对较易发生高温热害地区，信阳淮河以北地区属较易发生阴雨寡照地区，黄 河以北水稻种植区属相对较易发生干旱地区。

Abstract:

This paper determined the main meteorological factors which led to main disaster of rice based on a es- tablished rice yield prediction model using linear multivariate regression model. The results showed that the mean temperature during pre-tillering stage， mean temperature and sunshine hours during heading and flowering stage， precipitation during final tillering to heading and flowering stage had great influence on rice yield， respectively， which can be used as regionalization indexes of chilling damage， high temperature damage， scant lighting and drought. The chilling damage would easily occur along the banks of the Yellow River， i.e.， Kaifeng and Puyang region， high temperature damage would occur in the south of Huaihe river in Xinyang region， scant lighting due to cloudy and drizzly would occur in the north of Huaihe river in Xinyang region， drought occurred in the north of the Yellow River in rice growing area of Henan Province.