基于灰色模型的农村居民收入差异分析 ———以四川省为例

ANALYSIS OF INCOME DIFFERENCES OF RURAL RESIDENTS BASED ON GREY MODEL———TAKING SICHUAN PROVINCE FOR EXAMPLE

关键词:  灰色关联度 灰色预测 农村居民收入 差异 四川省

Key words:  grey concern grade  grey forecast  rural residents' income  difference  Sichuan province

摘要:

基于目前四川省农村居民收入差异研究欠缺的现状，通过对四川统计年鉴（2001～2010年）农村 居民数据处理，首先采用泰尔指数，得出四川现有的五大经济区域农村居民收入区域间差异呈缩小趋势， 并运用灰色关联度得出2000～2009年影响区域差异的主要因素有耕地面积、经济作物耕种量、非农活动人 口比例、机械总动力等。然后，改进传统灰色预测方法，结合四川省2008年的特殊情况，采用等时距和不 等时距灰色预测相结合的方式，分析出2010～2014年收入区域差异将逐渐缩小，并计算出各因素和区域差 异的灰色关联度。最后，将预测的关联度同2000～2009年的关联度比较，表明在力度相当的政策措施下， 非农活动人口比例、机械总动力和乡镇企业经营收入对农村居民收入差异的影响力将逐渐增强，而耕地面 积和种植结构的影响力有所减弱。

Abstract:

Few studies focused on the income differences of rural residents in Sichuan. Based on the processing of the data from Sichuan statistical yearbook（2001-2010）， this paper firstly calculated the rural residents' income differences between five main economic regions which showed a decrease trend using Theil index. The main factors such as cultivation land area， economic crop sown area， population ratio of non-agriculture， and machinery total power influenced the income differences from 2000 to 2009 by grey concern grade. Then， combined with the spe- cial situation of Sichuan in 2008， a modified grey forecast method by combining equal time interval with unequal time interval was used to analyze the income differences and calculate the values of grey concern grade between ev- ery factor and region differences. Finally， compared the forecasting values of grey concern grade with these values from 2000 to 2009， the factors such as population ratio of non-agriculture， machinery total power and the income of township enterprises would gradually have strong influences on the income differences， while cultivation area and planting structure have weak influences on income difference.