全球气候变暖背景下华南地区农业气候资源时空变化特征

THE SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGE CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURE CLIMATE RESOURCES IN SOUTHERN CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF GLOBAL WARMING

关键词:  气候变暖 华南地区 农业气候资源 时空变化

Key words:  climate warming  southern China  agricultural climate resources  spatio temporal change

摘要:

利用华南地区1960~2011年101个时间序列较长的气象台站地面观测资料，运用线性趋势法、累积距平和反距离加权插值等方法分析了华南地区光能、热量和水分等农业气候资源的时空变化特征。结果表明：1961年以来，华南地区年总辐射量呈现“U”字型变化趋势，日照时数呈减少趋势。1960~2011年，华南地区年平均气温、最高气温和最低气温都呈上升趋势，平均增速为019℃/10年、013℃/10年和023℃/10年，温度生长期内≥10℃积温的气候倾向率为767℃/年，总体呈上升趋势，与1960~1980年相比，1981~2011年华南地区≥10℃积温高于8000℃以上的积温约向北移动了040个纬度，高于7500~8000℃积温约向北移动了025个纬度，高于6 500~7 500℃积温约向北移动了015个纬度，这将有利于热带作物的生产和种植。同时，近52来年均降水量呈微弱增加趋势，线性倾向率为038mm/年，降水量的空间分布特征较为明显，由东南向西北逐渐减少，与全国降水量分布呈一致性。1960~2011年，华南地区光能、热量和水分等农业气候资源都发生了明显的变化，对农业会造成一定的影响，如作物生长期延长，生长季热量增加，种植界限向北、向高海拔扩展。

Abstract:

The variation characteristics of light, heat and moisture were analyzed by using the linear trend line method, cumulative anomaly method and IDW interpolation based on the daily meteorological observation data from 101 meteorological stations during 1960 to 2011 in Southern China. The results showed that the total annual radiation decreased from 1961 to 1986 but showed an increasing trend after 1986, the sunshine hours decreased from 1960 to 2011 in the study area. The mean annual average, maximum and minimum air temperature in this region tended to increased by 019℃/10a、013℃/10a and 023℃/10a from 1960 to 2011. The climatic trend of ≥10℃ accumulated temperature in growing season increased, with an average of 767℃/a. Compared with ≥10℃ accumulated temperature from 1960 to 1980, the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature above 8 000℃, 7 500℃, 6 500℃ from 1981 to 2011 moved northward for latitude of 040, 025 and 015, respectively. It was helpful for the production of tropical crops and planting. At the same time, the precipitation increased slightly with a rate of 038mm/a from 1960 to 2011, and the spatial distribution of the precipitation in the Southern China was consistent with the national distribution of precipitation with gradual reduction from southeast to northwest. From 1960 to 2011, the agricultural climate resources had been undertaken a significant change in the Southern China, such as light, heat and moisture. These changes will have certain impacts on agriculture, such as longer growing season of crops, the heat increased during growing season, planting boundaries northward and high altitude expansion.