柴达木盆地经济可持续发展综合评价

THE EVALUATION ON ECONOMIC SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN THE QAIDAM BASIN

关键词:  柴达木盆地 可持续发展 主成分分析 新型城镇化

Key words:  Qaidam Basin  sustainable development  principal component analysis  new-type urbanization

摘要:

通过对柴达木盆地8个县市实际情况的调查，从经济、社会以及资源环境方面选用37个具体指 标，建立经济可持续发展评价指标体系，采用主成分分析方法对柴达木盆地经济可持续发展作出综合评 价。评价结果显示， 1999～2012年柴达木盆地经济可持续发展水平总体呈上升趋势，综合得分从1999年的 -15.348 0提高到2012年的28.732 9。特别是2005年国家级柴达木循环经济试验区批准建设之后，地区 的可持续发展综合水平得分增长幅度较大，说明柴达木盆地循环经济的发展对可持续发展水平的提升有显 著支持作用。通过分析指出影响柴达木盆地经济可持续发展的四个主因子，分别是地区经济总量规模因 子、产业结构因子、人口素质范畴、社会基础设施发展因子。并通过主因子的变动情况，指出影响该地区 经济可持续发展的主要问题有:柴达木盆地公共基础设施不完善，制约经济的可持续发展;资源禀赋不均， 限制经济发展的持续性;人力资源实力较弱，科教投入不足，影响其工业转型;产业结构不合理。最后， 提出促进柴达木盆地经济可持续发展的对策建议。

Abstract:

Through an investigation on the actual situations of the eight counties in Qaidam Basin，this paper chose thirty-seven specific indicators from economy，society，resource and environment to establish an economic sustainable development evaluation index system， and then made a comprehensive evaluation of economical sustain- able development on Qaidam Basin using the Principal Component Analysis（PCA）. The results showed that the sustainable development level of economy in Qaidam Basin increased from 1999 to 2012. The comprehensive score increased from-15.3480 in 1999 to 28.7329 in 2012. Especially when the national Qaidam circular economy pilot area was approved to construct since 2005，the sustainable development comprehensive score changed from negative to positive since 2007. It indicated that developing circular economy had a significant role in improving the sustainable development level in Qaidam Basin.Then， it pointed out that the four factors affected the sustainable development of economy in the Qaidam Basin，which were the size of the economy，infrastructure，industrial structure and population quality. At last，it put forward some suggestions to promote the sustainable economic de- velopment in the Qaidam Basin.