新疆红枣种植规模对产量的滞后影响研究

STUDY ON LAG INFLUENCE OF PLANT SCALE ON THE YIELD OF XINJIANG JUJUBE

关键词:  红枣产业 面积与产量 分布滞后模型 供需失衡 新疆

Key words:  jujube industrialization  plant scale and harvest  PDL model  supply and demand out-of-bal- ance  Xinjiang

摘要:

随着新疆枣树种植规模的不断扩大，新疆的红枣产量也在迅速增长。该文结合枣树生长周期的特 点，运用多项式分布滞后模型（PDL）来分析新疆枣树种植规模的增长对红枣产量增量的滞后影响程度。 根据新疆红枣产业的发展现状，在种植规模不变的假设条件下，利用PDL模型来分析新增种植的枣树对红 枣产量的贡献程度。通过分析，该文认为枣树的种植规模对产量存在着滞后期为7的影响长度。其影响程 度随着时间的增长而增强，直到产量在盛果期稳定下来。同时，利用种植规模变动对产量的滞后影响程度 可以预测出2012～2017年的红枣产量，从而得出新疆红枣产业面临供给单方面暴增的风险这一结论。为了 新疆红枣产业的健康发展，需要及时对红枣产业规模和结构进行调控。

Abstract:

With the extend of planting scale of jujube trees，the supply of Xinjiang jujube increases quickly in re- cent years.Based on the feature of jujube's growing cycle，this article uses polynomial distribution lag model （PDL）to analyze the lag influence of the planting scale on the yield of jujube. So，under the developing status quo of Xinjiang jujube industry，based on the assumption that the planting scale of jujube trees stop growing，the PDL model was used to analyze the contributions of newly increased trees to jujube yields. The results showed that the lag influence period was seven years. Along with the time growth，the influence become more and more stron- ger until the full bearing period. Based on the lag influence on the growth of jujube supply，it can forecast the ju- jube supply of 2012～2017. The supply of Xinjiang jujube will increase largerly. For the healthy development of the Xinjiang jujube industry，it needed to control and adjust the jujube industry.