河南粮食总产及农业经济发展关键因素分析 ——基于面板数据分析

KEY FACTOR OF TOTAL GRAIN YIELD AND AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN HENAN ———BASED ON ANALYSIS OF PANEL DATA

关键词:  粮食总产量 农业经济 面板数据模型 河南

Key words:  total grain yield  agricultural economy  panel data model  Henan province

摘要:

利用面板数据方法，对河南省农业增加值、粮食总产量、农业机械总动力、农业劳动力、粮食播 种面积、化肥使用量、农药使用量、地膜使用量的对数值进行了面板单位根检验，证实了这8个经济变量 的对数值均为一阶单整，有共同增长的趋势。然后对各变量进行了协整检验，验证了河南省这几个农业经 济变量均存在一阶协整。通过构建不变参数面板回归模型并进行估计，证实了3个结论:（1）粮食播种面 积与化肥使用量对农业增加值以及粮食总产量的影响较为显著，粮食播种面积每增加1%，能使农业增加 值增加1.32%，化肥使用折纯量每增加1%能促使农业增加值增加0.407%。对粮食产量增速影响较为显著 的是粮食播种面积的增速以及化肥使用量的增速，对粮食产量增速影响分别为1.517 0和0.235 4。（2）农 业机械总动力以及农药使用量对农业增加值以及粮食总产量的影响不太明显，影响系数均在0.1以下。 （3）农业劳动力与农业增加值以及粮食总产量均呈现出负相关，农业劳动力对农业增加值的影响系数为- 0.159 3，对粮食总产量的影响系数为-0.056 1。据此提出4个方面的建议:（1）增加粮食播种面积，保证 粮食安全;（2）增施肥料，增加粮食单位产量;（3）科学使用农药，保证食品安全;（4）提高农机化水平， 促进农地流转，以提高农业生产效率。

Abstract:

Using the panel data model， this paper made a panel unit root test on the agricultural added value，to- tal grain yield，total power of agricultural machinery，agricultural labor force，the sown area of grain，fertilizer usage，pesticide usage and the amount of the film in Henan province，and confirmed that the eight economic varia- bles in logarithmic form were integrated of order one，and had common growth trend. Then it made co-integration test on the variables，and verified that the agriculture economic variables in Henan province were first-order co- integration. By the construction of invariant parameter panel regression model， it confirmed three conclusions:（1） the sown area of grain and fertilizer addition influenced grain yield significantly. Each increase 1% of grain sown area can increase the agricultural added value by 1.32%，and 1% increase of fertilizer use can promote the agri- cultural added value by 0.407%. The increase rate of sown area and fertilizer significantly increased grain yield growth rate by 1.517 0 and 0.235 4， respectively.（2）the total power of agricultural machinery and the usage of pesticides in agriculture had not significant effects on total grain yield， and the influence coefficient was less than 0.1;（3）agricultural labor showed negative correlations with agricultural added value and total grain yield，the influence coefficient value of agricultural labor force on agricultural added value and total grain yield were -0. 159 3 and -0.056 1， respectively. Accordingly，the paper put forward four suggestions:（1） to increase the sown area of grain to ensure food security;（2）to increase fertilizer scientifically to improve per unit of grain pro- duction.（3）to limit the use of pesticides to ensure food safety;（4）to improve the level of Agricultural Mecha- nization to promote the circulation of agricultural land and improve the efficiency of agricultural production.