生态文明视野下城镇化与耕地保护协调发展研究 ——以福建省宁德市为例

STUDY ON THE COORDINATION BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND PRESERVATION OF THE CULTIVATED LAND UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF ECOCIVILIZATION ——A CASE STUDY IN NINGDE CITY，FUJIAN PROVINCE

关键词:  生态文明 城镇化 耕地保护 协调发展

Key words:  ecological civilization  urbanization  cultivated land protection  coordinated development

摘要:

在推进城镇化过程中需要贯彻落实生态文明理念和原则。城镇化与耕地保护协调发展是福建省宁 德市社会经济发展中的重要问题。在确定城镇化水平的综合指标后，对耕地面积、城镇化水平变化情况进 行了描述。整体来看，随着宁德市城镇化水平的不断提高，耕地数量呈下降趋势。表明耕地保护任务还很 艰巨。利用协调度指标对宁德市1978～2010年的城镇化水平与耕地面积的关系进行实证分析，结果表明， 两者关系经历了不协调，协调，不协调3个阶段。这反映了城镇化建设与耕地资源保护的矛盾。对耕地与 城镇化水平变化的曲线拟合发现有代表两种发展趋势的倒S曲线、倒U曲线，表明随着城镇化水平推进， 耕地面积有可能缓慢稳定，但也可能加速减少。后者是要极力避免的一种趋势。为研究城镇化水平与耕地 面积的动态关系，在建立VAR模型的基础上，进行了脉冲响应分析和方差分解分析，主要结果表明，城镇 化发展对耕地面积变化作用逐期增大，从第4期开始稳定在5.2%左右;耕地面积变化对城镇化发展影响 逐渐变大，在第1期对城镇化发展影响为10.61%，到第10期达到20.43%。最后，论文提出了严格执行 耕地保护制度，积极推进高标准基本农田建设，加快推进城镇化进程的政策建议。

Abstract:

During the process of promoting urbanization， the ecological civilization concept and principle need to be implemented. Coordination development between urbanization and preservation of the cultivated land in Ningde city of Fujian province is important for its socio-economy. Based on the synthesized index of the urbanization lev- el，the changes of the cultivated area and the level of urbanization were described. As a whole， with the constant improvement of the urbanization level of Ningde city， the cultivated land area had declined that indicated the culti- vated land protection was still very arduous task. The index of coordination degree between the level of urbanization and the cultivated area from 1978 to 2010 was used for an empirical analysis， the results showed that， the relation- ship between the two had experienced three stages successively， i.e.， incoordination， coordination and incoordina- tion. The fitting curve for cultivated land and the level of urbanization change showed that there were two kinds of curves that could represent the development trend， i.e.， inversed S-shaped curve， inverted U-shaped curve. Based on the VAR model， an analysis of dynamic quantitative relationship was made. The main result showed that the effect of urbanization development on the change of cultivated area was significant with an impact index of 5.2% from the fourth period. The effects of the changes of the cultivated area on the urbanization development was gradu- ally becoming bigger， with the impact index 10.61% in the first period to 20.43% in the 10 period. At last， some policy suggestions were put forward on how to promote the coordinated development of urbanization and cultivated land protection in Ningde city of Fujian province.