基于CMS模型的中国人参资源出口效应分析

ANALYSIS ON CHINESE GINSENG PRODUCT EXPORTATION BASED ON CONSTANT MARKET SHARE MODEL

关键词:  中国人参 价格 出口 波动 恒定市场份额模型

Key words:  ginseng  price  export  fluctuations  CMS

摘要:

人参产业是我国最具特色，也是出口规模最大的中药产业。巨大的国际市场需求带动了中国人参产业的发展，但从历史客观角度分析，我国人参出口波动较大，无论是在出口金额、出口量，还是出口单价上都表现出了频繁的波动，这种频繁波动不利于产业的可持续发展。该文在分析2000年~2011年中国人参出口贸易规模与市场结构特征的基础上，运用恒定市场份额模型CMS对中国人参出口贸易效应进行分解和量化分析，探寻我国人参出口波动的原因及内在机理。结果显示，无论是在出口萧条期还是恢复期，我国人参出口的竞争力效应都是负效应，这也很好地说明了在国际人参产业竞争中，韩国高丽参对中国人参产业的长期压制是由于中国人参产业缺乏竞争优势造成的。只有当结构效应明显强于竞争力效应时，我国人参出口才能呈现增长趋势，也反映了世界人参进口需求情况对我国人参出口有显著影响。

Abstract:

Ginseng industry, as a traditional competitive industry in China, is the largest of China′s exports of traditional Chinese medicine industry. Along with social progress and development of the national economy, the ginseng industry itself has become a rich meaning of the carrier from a cultural perspective due to its medicinal history of thousands of years. The China ginseng is the very representative products in China agriculture, which is promoted by the huge international market needs. The ginseng industry of China is very big in the growth potential of the product quantity and popularity, but the commercial organizational skill and consciousnesses are too weak. Although the ginseng industry is the largest of China′s exports of traditional Chinese medicine industry, the export quantity, unit price, and total price all fluctuate very greatly, which are harmful for the sustainable development of the ginseng industry. This paper analyzed the Chinese Ginseng exports of scale and market structure from 2000 to 2011, explored the reasons and inherent mechanism of export fluctuations in Ginseng products in China based on the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database using CMS analysis method. And then, in-depth analysis of Ginseng industry systems in China, including ginseng production, processing, marketing and exporting status, was carried out. The results clearly indicated that China′s ginseng industry was in weakness status in the international market competition. Finally, it put forward some ideas to promote the healthy development of China′s ginseng industry.