我国耕地集约利用水平地区差异研究——基于投影寻踪模型的面板数据分析

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DIFFERENCE OF FARMLAND INTENSIVE USE IN CHINA——A PANEL-DATA STUDY BASED ON PROJECTION PURSUIT MODEL

关键词:  耕地 集约利用 投影寻踪模型 区域差异 泰尔指数

Key words:  farmland  intensive use  projection pursuit  regional difference  Theil index

摘要:

随着我国城镇化进程的加快及经济的快速发展，经济和人口对耕地的压力不断增加。一方面，非农建设和环境污染侵占了大量耕地资源，导致耕地数量急剧减少；另一方面随着社会经济的发展，国民对农产品的需求也不断增加，要求单位面积耕地具备更大的产出能力。因此，对耕地的集约利用已经成为提高我国耕地产出效率和确保我国农产品供给安全的必然选择。该文首先通过构建耕地集约利用评价指标体系，利用投影寻踪模型对我国31个省市区的耕地集约利用水平进行了综合测度。结果显示：2002~2011年间我国耕地利用集约度区域差异显著，其中东部地区集约利用水平最高，中、西部次之。然后，依据已测度的结果，采用变异系数和泰尔指数进一步分析得到耕地集约利用水平的变化规律：2002~2011年我国东部和西部耕地集约利用水平内部差异不断缩小，而中部地区内部差异起伏波动较大。最后，通过对泰尔指数的分解得知我国耕地集约利用水平差异产生的原因，80%以上是由区域内的差异造成，区域间的差异贡献度较小但有逐渐提高的趋势。

Abstract:

With the rapid development of economy and urbanization process in China, the pressure of economy and population to cultivated land is increasing. On one hand, non-agricultural construction and pollution occupied a large part of land and caused decrease of land resource drastically. On the other hand, because of the development of the social economy, the need for more and more agricultural productions required higher producing ability per unit land. Therefore, farmland intensive use is an inevitable choice to improve the land output efficiency and ensure the safety of the production supply. Through the construction of the evaluation index system of intensive land use, this paper firstly quantified the intensive use of farmland of 31 regions in china. The results showed that during the time from 2002 to 2011, the levels of farmland intensive use were different in the different regions, of which the eastern part of china owned the highest intensive utilization level, followed by the middle part and the west part. Then, it analyzed the changing trend using variation coefficient and Theil index, finding that in both eastern and Western parts of china, the trends were shrinking, while there was no monotonic trend in the middle part. Finally, based on the decomposition of Theil index, the reasons of the difference of farmland intensive utilization levels were analyzed which mainly (about 80% or more) come from the regional differences, while the differences between the regions played a small but increasing role in the ten years.