粮食主产区城镇化健康持续发展分析——以河南省为例

ANALYSIS OF URBANIZATION HEALTHY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN MAJOR GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS-TAKING HENAN PROVINCE AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  粮食主产区 粮食主销区 城乡收入差距 城镇化水平 制度创新 河南省

Key words:  major grain producing areas  major grain marketing areas  income gap between urban and rural areas  the urbanization level  system innovation  Henan province

摘要:

粮食主产区面临城镇化进程淤塞，城镇发展和国家粮食安全冲突的现实困境。研究粮食主产区城镇化健康、持续发展很有现实意义。以河南省为案例进行实证研究，针对现实困境找出粮食主产区共同的发展对策。构建河南省的城乡收入差距与和城镇化水平之间的“倒U型”模型，采用统计口径一致的1990~2012年数据进行验证，相关关系十分显著。格兰杰因果关系验证结果显示城乡收入差距和城镇化水平互为格兰杰原因。城镇化水平达到3697%时达到“倒U型”的拐点，和十七届三中全会提出的城乡发展的新阶段契合。通过验证城镇化水平和城乡收入差距间的“倒U型”关系，证实当经过“倒U型”拐点后，一系列试图增加粮食主产区农民收入的制度创新会加速促进城镇化健康持续发展。基于上述结果，提出粮食主产区城镇化健康持续发展的策略主要有两点：探索土地制度政策创新； 探索粮食主销区对粮食主产区的补偿机制创新。

Abstract:

The urbanization process in major grain producing areas is facing some difficulties due to the contradiction between urban development and national food security. The healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in the major grain producing areas had great practical significance. Henan province, as an extremely important grain producing area, is the biggest producer of yield from 2000 to 2009. The "inverted U" model showing the income gap and urbanization levels between urban and rural areas of Henan province was built and then verified using statistical data from 1990 to 2012 with significant correlation results. Granger causality test results showed that the income gap between urban and rural areas presented the granger cause of urbanization level. When urbanization level has reached 3697%, ie., the "inverted U" inflection point, it corresponds to a new stage of urban and rural development proposed the third plenary session of the 17th Central Committee. By verifying the "inverted U" relationship between urbanization level and the income gap, when reaching the turning point of the "inverted U", a series of institutional innovations trying to increase farmers' income in major grain producing areas will promote healthy and continuous development of urbanization. Based on the above results, it put forward two strategies for the major grain producing areas of urbanization healthy and sustained development: exploring the policy innovation of land system, and exploring food compensation mechanism innovation of major grain producing and marketing areas.