农业周期性波动对农业长期增长趋势的影响——基于省际动态面板数据的研究

IMPACT OF THE CYCLICAL VOLATILITY OF AGRICULTURE ON THE LONG RUN GROWTH TREND OF AGRICULTURE——BASED ON THE RESEARCH OF PROVINCIAL DYNAMIC PANEL DATA

关键词:  农业周期性波动 省际 动态面板数据 差分—广义矩方法

Key words:  cyclical volatility of agriculture  trend of long run growth  dynamic panel data  method of DIF-GMM

摘要:

1949年以来，中国农业一直呈现较大幅度的周期性波动，长期来看，农业具有增长趋势，不同阶段的农业增长有起有落。以1952～2011年间（1952年为基期）的农业总产值定基指数为原始数据，采用农业的7年期中心化移动平均增长率来表示农业的长期增长，以农业增长率的7年期滚动标准差系数度量农业的周期性波动，建立基于1956~2008年期间省际动态面板数据，运用差分GMM估计方法，首次从一般意义上实证考察了中国农业周期性波动对农业长期增长趋势的影响，试图对农业周期性波动是否会影响农业长期增长趋势以及如何影响这一问题做出回答。结果表明，总体上，农业的周期性波动对农业的长期增长具有正面影响，不同区域不存在异质性。从分段样本考察结果看，不同阶段由于农业制度变迁导致二者关系发生了变化。1981～1990年和2001～2008年两段期间由于先后实行农村的经济制度从生产队体制向家庭联产承包责任制转变和农村税费制度改革，导致农业的周期性波动对农业的长期增长具有负面影响，其余期间表现为正面影响。

Abstract:

Since the founding of China, agriculture production has been showing relatively large cyclical fluctuations and a long-term growth trend, but the increase magnitude is different in different stages. Taking the fixed base index of agricultural output from the period of 1952~2011 as the raw data, selecting seven-year centered moving average growth rate of agriculture to represent the long-term growth of agriculture, using the seven-year rolling standard deviation coefficient of agriculture growth rate to measure the cyclical volatility of agriculture, establishing the provincial dynamic panel data during 1956-2008, this paper investigated the impact of cyclical volatility of agriculture on long run growth trend of agriculture in china using the method of DIF-GMM. The results showed that the whole cyclical volatility of agriculture had a positive impact on the long run growth trend of agriculture; there was no heterogeneity in different regions. The results from the sub-sample investigation showed that at different stages the relationship between them had changed due to the institutional change of agriculture. The cyclical volatility of agriculture had a negative impact on the long run growth trend of agriculture due to the family-contract responsibility system in 1981-1990 and the reformation of rural tax system in 2001-2008, but had a positive impact during other periods.