黄淮海区气候变化及其对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响

CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT TO WINTER WHEAT POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVITY OF HUANG-HUAI-HAI REGION IN CHINA

关键词:  黄淮海区 气候变化 冬小麦 光温生产潜力

Key words:  Huang-huai-hai region  climate change  winter wheat  radiation-temperature potential productivity

摘要:

气候变化对冬小麦生长发育及产量的影响、冬小麦生产对气候变化的适应已经成为学术界研究的热点问题之一。黄淮海区是我国第一大冬小麦主产区，研究选择黄淮海区为研究区域，首先运用线性倾向率方法分析了黄淮海区近50年来太阳辐射量和平均温度在全年和冬小麦生育期两个时段内的时间和空间变化特征，运用AEZ模型计算了黄淮海区各气象站点的冬小麦光温生产潜力；在此基础上，分析了太阳辐射量和温度变化对冬小麦光温生产潜力的影响。结果表明：（1）黄淮海区全年日均太阳辐射量和生育期内日均太阳辐射量均表现为减少的趋势，且全年日均太阳辐射量减少幅度较大； （2）黄淮海区年平均温度表现为上升的趋势，而冬小麦生育期内平均温度的上升趋势极不明显； （3）黄淮海区冬小麦生育期内太阳辐射量的减少和平均温度的降低是导致冬小麦光温生产潜力下降的主要原因。

Abstract:

Climate change affects regional crop production. The impacts of climate change on growth and output of winter wheat, and the adaptation of winter wheat production to climate change have become hot topic in climate change research. The Huang-Huai-Hai region is the largest producing areas of winter wheat, where has experienced substantial climate change during the last 50 years (1961-2010). Based on 50 years observational data from thirty-seven meteorological stations, this study firstly analyzed the characteristics of climate changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai region, and then calculated the radiation temperature potential productivity (RTPP) by using the crop growth model of FAO AEZ-project. Furthermore, this paper assessed the impacts of climate change on winter wheat potential productivity. The results showed that: (1) over 50 years, the daily average solar radiation quantity of a full year and winter wheat's total growing period both showed an decreasing trend, and the decreasing extent of the former was greater than the latter. (2) The annual average temperature showed an increasing trend, while the increasing trend of the average temperature during winter wheat's growing period was insignificant.(3) The decreasing of the daily average solar radiation quantity and the average temperature during winter wheat's growing period led to a decreased radiation-temperature potential productivity.