新疆农机化发展能否持续促进农民增收

CAN AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE FARMERS' INCOME IN XINJIANG?

关键词:  农业机械化 农民增收 灰色关联分析 层次分析法 VAR模型

Key words:  agricultural mechanization  the farmer's income  correlation analytic process  analytic hierarchy process  VAR model

摘要:

基于目前新疆农机化发展与农民增收关系研究文献欠缺的现状，通过对新疆（1978～2013年）相关统计数据，首先采用灰色关联分析法对影响农民增收的主要因素（劳动力投入、化肥使用量、机械总动力、农林牧渔总产值、农作物播种面积、粮食产量）进行分段关联分析，侧面反映出农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入之间存在较大关联度； 其次通过构建VAR模型，并进行协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等对新疆农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：新疆农机化发展水平与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系。从长期来看，农机总动力每增长1%，就会拉动农民人均纯收入1.6222%的上涨； Granger因果关系检验表明，农机化发展在短期内是农民人均纯收入增长的原因，且农民增收也是农机化发展的原因； 脉冲响应函数和方差分解结果表明，农机化发展与农民增收之间互相影响，但是农机总动力的变动对以后各年农民人均纯收入的变动的影响作用低于农民人均纯收入变动对农机总动力的变动。最后，为更好实现新疆农业现代化发展和农民增收提出政策建议。

Abstract:

Few studies focused on the relationship between Xinjiang agricultural mechanization development and the increasing of farmers' income currently. According to Xinjiang statistics data from the year 1978 to 2013, firstly, the factors (such as labor input, fertilizer use, mechanical power, agricultural output, crop planting area, food production) affecting the farmers' income were studied by using grey correlation method to explore the mechanization degree of impact on famers' income in this paper. Then this paper applied VAR model by using Co-integration, Granger causality tests, and Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition to analyze the relationship of between Xinjiang agricultural mechanization development and farmers' income. The results showed: There was a long term stable equilibrium relation between the development of agricultural mechanization and farmers' income. In the long run, every 1 percent increase had about 1.622 2 percent pulling effect on the farmer's income. Granger causality test showed that the mechanization development was the cause of the farmers' income growth in the short term, and the increasing of farmers' income was the cause of the mechanization development. Impulse response function and variance decomposition results showed that the mechanization and farmers' income influenced each other. But the effect of machinery total power on increasing farmers' income was lower than that of the farmers' income on the agricultural machinery total power growth. Finally, policies and suggestions were put forward for better implementation of Xinjiang agricultural modernization development and continuously increasing farmer's income.