河南省耕地压力指数动态分析与预测

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF THE CULTIVATED LAND PRESSURE INDEX IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  耕地压力指数 GM (1, 1) 模型 线性回归 河南省 耕地保护

Key words:  the cultivated land pressure index  GM（1, 1）model  linear regression  Henan province  the protection of the arable land

摘要:

文章通过2004～2013年河南省耕地压力指数的直观数据，分析了2003年以来河南省耕地面积、粮食播种面积、粮食产量及常住人口的动态变化情况，发现河南省2003～2012年耕地压力指数与最小人均耕地面积变化趋势呈现出相同的波动状态，即先呈下降趋势，后在较小的波动中趋于稳定，表明2003～2012年间河南省无明显耕地压力，粮食产量足以满足人口需求。同时，文章利用灰色系统理论与线性回归分析等工具对影响河南省耕地压力指数的粮食单产、实际人均耕地面积等因素的变化进行了GM（1， 1）模型的构建、修正及线性回归方程的建立，测算出以后若干年河南省耕地压力指数。研究表明，未来10年河南省耕地压力指数远小于1，耕地供应能力可以满足粮食生产需求。在肥力改善，耕地巨大生产能力得以保持的基础上，优化农业种植结构，退耕还林还草，改善农业生态，甚至开发休闲农业等，都将成为可能。

Abstract:

This paper has analyzed the dynamic changes of cultivated land area, grain size, grain yield and resident population in Henan province since 2003 through the analysis on the visual data from 2004 to 2013 of the cultivated land pressure index in Henan province. We found the change trends of the cultivated land pressure index and the minimum per capita cultivated land area are the same. The trend was declining first, and then stable after small fluctuations, which indicated that there was no obvious cultivated land pressure and the food production is sufficient to meet the population needs in Henan Province during 2003-2012. Gray system theory, linear regression analysis and other tools are used to analyze the factors such as the grain yield per unit area and the actual per capita arable land area, which had influence on cultivated land pressure index. The construction of GM (1, 1) model and the establishment of linear regression equation could calculate the pressure index of cultivated land in Henan province. The research showed that the cultivated land pressure index in Henan province would be much less than 1 in the next 10 years, and the supply capacity of the cultivated land was enough to meet the needs of food production. As long as the soil fertility was improved, the huge production capacity of cultivated land was maintained and the agricultural planting structure was optimized, those such as returning farmland to forests and grassland, improving agricultural ecology, and even developing the leisure agriculture would become possible.