新疆林果业生产风险度量与评估——基于GM（1，1）模型与信息扩散理论的实证分析

MEASUREMENT AND EVALUATION OF FRUIT INDUSTRY PRODUCTION RISKIN XINJIANG———BASED ON GM (1,1) MODEL AND INFORMATION DIFFUSION THEORY

关键词:  林果业 生产风险GM（1，1）模型 信息扩散理论 风险评估

Key words:  forest fruit industry  production risk  GM（1,1）model  information diffusion theory  risk assessment

摘要:

文章以新疆地区7种特色林果作物为研究对象，选择1988~2012年林果业作物的单产变化数据进行实证分析，将GM（1，1）模型与信息扩散理论相结合，运用趋势单产、单产偏离程度及风险发生概率等指标，对林果业生产风险进行定量的评估。通过灰色预测模型GM（1，1）对林果作物的产量序列数据进行分析，并将实证分析结果与信息扩散理论相结合，测算出林果作物的生产风险发生概率。研究结果表明：新疆林果业产业中不同作物的风险存在显著的差异性，其中红枣与桃的生产风险最大，其次依次是苹果、梨、葡萄、杏，石榴的生产风险最小。根据研究结果，该文提出应区别对待不同林果作物的生产风险防范，针对不同的林果作物风险程度实行不同的保险补贴水平，可采用定期或者不定期的方式对林果作物的生产风险进行评估，同时加强林果业生产风险防范的基础设施的建设，不断完善林果业风险管理体系。

Abstract:

Taking seven special fruit crops in Xinjiang as the case study，selecting fruit crop yield changes in 1988-2012 to data analysis，and using GM（1，1）models and information diffusion theory，this paper quantified the production risks of forestryand fruit industry based on the indicators of trend yield，the deviation degree of yield，and probability of risk occurrence.And also it estimated the risk probabilities of the forest fruit crop production based on the fruit crop yields sequence data using the combination of information diffusion theory with grey model GM（1，1）analysis.Results showed that：In the forest fruit industry of Xinjiang，there were significant different risks in different crops.Red jujube and peach had the biggest production risk，following by apples，pears，grapes，apricots，and pomegranate in turn.According to that results，this paper proposed that different fruit crops should be treated differently in production risk prevention.It should set up different levels of insurance subsidies for different fruit crops，take regular or irregular manner to assess fruit crop production risks，strengthen the infrastructure construction of fruit production risk prevention，and then constantly improve the risk management system of forestryand fruit industry.