北方农牧交错带农业经济增长驱动因素的动态分析——以宁夏回族自治区盐池县为例

DYNAMIC ANALYSIS IN DRIVING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURE ECONOMY OF FARMING-PASTORAL TRANSITIONAL ZONE OF NORTHERN CHINA——A CASE STUDY OF YANCHI COUNTY OF NINGXIA HUI AUTONOMOUS REGION IN CHINA

关键词:  北方农牧交错带 农业经济 影响因素 盐池县

Key words:  farming-pastoral transitional zone of northern China  agriculture economy  influencing factors  Yanchi county

摘要:

文章以农牧交错典型过渡地带宁夏盐池县为研究对象，在VAR模型分析的基础上，采用协整检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解技术，对盐池县农业经济及其主要影响因素之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果表明：盐池县第一产业与农业劳动人口、畜牧业产值、化肥施用量、农业产值、耕地面积及财政支农支出之间存在长期均衡关系；农业劳动人口与第一产业之间呈负相关关系，而且农业劳动人口增加对第一产业的贡献度较小；畜牧业、农业与第一产业之间呈现正相关关系，而且两者对农业经济的贡献度也相对较高，但相比较而言，畜牧业更符合未来盐池县农业产业结构调整的趋势与生态环境建设的需要；化肥与耕地是农业生产中重要的投入要素，但单纯依靠要素增加的粗放型生产方式对农业经济效益提高作用有限且不稳定；由于结构不合理且资金使用效率较低，目前财政支农支出对促进盐池县农业经济发展的贡献较小。

Abstract:

Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy.Yanchi county，an important agricultural county in Ningxia，is a typical transition zone of Farming-Pastoral Transitional Zone of northern China，where has a typical landscape feature of a large area of grassland and farmland staggered appearance.The VAR（vector auto-regression）is one of the most successful，flexible，and easy models for analyzing the multivariate time series.Based on VAR model，this paper analyzed the relationshipsamong the primary factors influencing the economics of Yanchi county of Ningxia by means of co-integration analysis，impulse response and variance decomposition.The results were as follows：（1）There was a long-term equilibrium relationship among the primary industry，rural labor，animal husbandry，chemical fertilizer，agriculture output，fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture，and cultivated area.（2）There was a significant negative correlation between rural labor and the primary industry.The contribution of rural labor to the primary industry was relatively small which showed that Yanchi county had a lot of surplus rural labor.（3）There was a significant positive correlation between animal husbandry，agriculture output and the primary industry.Both animal husbandry and agriculture output made great contribution to the agricultural economy，of which animal husbandry was moreuseful to the agricultural industry structural adjustment and ecological environment construction.（4）Chemical fertilizer and cultivated area had short-term effect on the primary industry，but the effect was not stable.The fiscal expenditure for supporting agriculture had little contributionto the primary industry.