甘肃省食用植物油供需波动变化研究

THE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FLUCTUATIONS OF EDIBLE VEGETABLE OIL IN GANSU PROVINCE

关键词:  食用植物油 供需波动 甘肃省

Key words:  edible vegetable oil  supply and demand fluctuations  Gansu province

摘要:

食用植物油是人民群众的生活必需品，其消费量已成为衡量一个国家人民生活水平的重要标志，并在国家食物安全中占有重要的地位，保障其供给安全，对促进经济发展和社会稳定具有重要意义。文章收集整理了1978～2012年甘肃省油料作物和食用植物油相关数据，运用速度法和数理统计等方法，从产量、供给、需求、消费量、库存消费比等方面，分析研究甘肃省食用植物油供需波动变化情况。研究得出油料市场供给基本满足消费需求，但油料作物种植发展缓慢，产业化水平较低； 食用植物油供需波动处于紧平衡状态，自给率仅为76%左右，省外购进的量远远大于外销量，消费需求的增长速度超过产量的增长，食用植物油缺口较大，同时存在种植品种与加工品种、品种结构与市场需求、区域性产销不协调之处。通过综合分析研究，构建了“以自给为主，贸易调剂为铺”的供给模式，提出了提高食用植物油安全供给的政策选择，为甘肃省食用植物油发展提供了新思路和科学依据，对保障甘肃省食用植物油安全供给具有重要意义。

Abstract:

Edible vegetable oil is one of the life necessities. Its consumption has become an important symbol to measure the level of people's life and plays an important role in the national food security.The sufficient supply is very important to the promotion of economic development and social stability. Based on the related data of oilseeds and edible oil in Gansu province from 1978 to 2012,taking the production, supply, demand, consumption and the stock consumption ratio of the vegetable oil as the main research objects,this paper analyzed the changes fluctuation of supply and demand of Gansu province edible vegetable oil using velocity method and mathematical statistics method. The results showed that the edible vegetable oil market supply can basically meet the consumers' demand, but the growing of oil crops was slow and had a low industrialization level. Gansu province edible vegetable oil was in a state of tight balance security and self-sufficiency rate of edible vegetable oil was only about 76%, which meant that the outside purchase amount was far greater than the external sales. There was a great gap between consumer demand and output of the oil. At the same time, there were some problems between planting varieties and processing varieties, varieties structure and market demand, regional production and marketing. Through comprehensive analysis and research, a safe mode and policy options for the supply and demand were proposed,which can provide new ideas and scientific basis for the development of edible vegetable oil and has important significance to ensure the safety of edible vegetable oil in Gansu province.