基于SD模型的海淀区水资源供需平衡模拟与仿真研究

SIMULATION AND EMULATION ON THE EQUILIBRIUM OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF WATER RESOURCES IN HAIDIAN DISTRICT BASED ON THE SD MODEL

关键词:  水资源 供需平衡 系统动力学 模拟与仿真 发展模式

Key words:  water resources  supply and demand balance  system dynamic  simulation  development mode

摘要:

针对北京市水资源短缺的现状，选择海淀区为典型研究区，结合水资源供需系统所具有的复杂系统特征，在综合考虑水资源需求、水资源供给、非常规供水、生态需水、生产需水、生活需水及缺水率的影响等因素的情况下，分析其水资源供需平衡情况。文章采用系统动力学法，建立海淀区水资源供需平衡的系统动力学（SD）模型。并将仿真结果与历史数据对比，验证模型的真实性，进而通过该模型对海淀区2011~2030年的水资源供需平衡情况进行了模拟与仿真分析。根据控制变量的确定原则，提取若干个敏感决策变量，通过调整几种变量的组合，提出了3种发展模式：现状趋势发展型、经济发展型及可持续发展型。到2030年，现状趋势发展型缺水率将涨到5894%，二产产值为130×107万元，三产产值为194×108万元； 经济发展型缺水率将涨到5616%，二产产值为306×107万元，三产产值为354×108万元； 可持续发展型缺水率将降到2594%，二产产值为215×107万元，三产产值为253×108万元。综合分析，可持续发展型最为可取，但因难以量化缺水率与人口增长率之间的关系，此模式下缺水率也是逐年增加。经济发展型缺水情况最为严重，现状趋势发展型则介于可持续发展型与经济发展型之间。为此，该文最后提出3条对策建议：控制人口与水价、节水治污与雨水资源化、调整产业结构与增加外调地表水量。

Abstract:

Aiming at the present situation of water shortage in Beijing City, choosing Haidian District as the typical research area, this paper analyzed the supply and demand balance of water resources and the complex characteristics based on considering the factors such as water demand and supply, unconventional water supply, ecological water requirement, production water requirement, living water requirement and water lacking rate.The system dynamics（SD）model of water supply and demand balance in Haidian District was established by system dynamics method, and was validated by comparing the simulation result with historical data. It simulated the situation of water supply and demand balance in Haidian District from the year 2011 to 2030 using this model. According to the principle of determining control variables, this paper put forward three development modes,i.e., development mode with current trend, economic development mode and sustainable development mode, through adjusting the combinations of the sensitive decision variables. The results showed that, by the year 2030, for the 3 development modes, the water deficiency rate would be increased to 58.94%, 56.16%, and 25.94%, respectively, the output value of secondary industry was 1.30×105, 3.06×105 and 2.15×105 million yuan, respectively, and the tertiary industry value was 1.94×106, 3.54 ×106 and 2.53×106 million yuan, respectively.The sustainable development mode was the most desirable, but the water deficiency rate was increasing year by year because of the difficulty to quantify the relationship between the water deficiency rate and population growth rate.The economic development mode was confronted with the most severe water shortages crisis. Finally, the paper put forward three countermeasures, i.e., controlling the population and the water price;saving water, curbing water pollution, and making use of rainwater; adjusting the industrial structure and increasing the introduction amount of surface water.