中国棉花种植成本收益的演变

EVOLVEMENT OF CHINESE COTTON COST-BENEFIT

关键词:  棉花 成本利润率 可持续发展 演变

Key words:  cotton  profit ratio of cost  evolution

摘要:

棉花是国家重要战略储备物资，历年棉花的播种面积、产量及价格，对棉花市场造成巨大影响，也影响着棉花产业的健康发展。研究棉花种植成本的变动，直接关系到棉农的经济收益。为对我国棉花种植收益的演变进行探析，文章基于1990～2013年中国棉花种植成本收益数据，运用趋势分析与比较分析法，对我国棉花种植成本收益的变化趋势进行研究。研究发现：（1）我国棉花种植成本由1990年265.63元/667m2，增加到2013年2177.5元/667m2，增加了1911.87元/667m2，增长了7.2倍，年均增长率9.58%； （2）成本利润率由1990年的最大值102.87%，下降到2013年-9.87%的最低值，未来提高棉花成本利润率压力较大； （3）棉花出售价格变量与棉花种植的长期平均成本变量对棉花成本利润率影响显著，未来我国棉花种植是否能够获利，价格将成为关键影响因素。研究结论：（1）我国棉花种植成本收益正处于“高投入，低产出”，规模报酬递减阶段； （2）棉花出售价格变量与棉花种植的长期平均成本变量，是影响我国棉花成本利润率关键变量，且棉花出售价格变量的影响更显著。研究建议：（1）完善我国棉花价格市场形成机制，避免棉花市场价格出现剧烈波动； （2）通过优化棉花生产环节，降低棉花生产成本； （3）贯彻落实国家生产补贴政策，使补贴资金及时、足额发放到户。

Abstract:

Cotton is an important national strategic reserveThe cotton sown area，output，and prices all have huge impacts on the cotton market，and the healthy development of the cotton industry.The change of cotton growing cost directly affects the cotton growers' economic returnsBased on cotton growing cost-benefit data from 1990～2013，this paper analyzed the change trends using trend analysis and comparative analysis methodsThe results showed that China's cotton production cost increased from 265.63 yuan in 1990 to 2177.5 yuan in 2003，with an increase of 1911.87 yuan or 7.2 times，the average annual growth rate was 9.58%.The cost profit rate dropped from the maximum value 102.87% in 1990 to the lowest value-9.87% in 2013 year due to a great increase of cotton costThe price of cotton and the long term average cost of cotton plant significantly affected in the profit of cottonIt concluded that：（1）China's cotton-growing costs and benefits were in “high input，low output” stage.（2）The market price of cotton and cotton-growing long-term average variable costs affected cotton margin costIt put forward the following recommendations：to perfect China's cotton market price formation mechanism and avoid sharp fluctuations in the market price；to optimize the cotton production processes and reduce the cost of cotton production；to implement the policy of state subsidies on production and make timely and full payment of subsidies to farmers.