基于解构模型的中国农村居民消费影响因素分析——基于1999～2012年面板数据

ANALYSIS OF THE AFFECTING FACTORS OF CHINESE RURAL RESIDENTS' CONSUMPTION BASED ON DECONSTRUCTION MODEL

关键词:  农村居民 消费 解构模型 影响因素 干预率

Key words:  rural residents'  consumption  deconstruction model  factors  intervention rate

摘要:

近些年中国农村居民的消费总量呈现快速增长的趋势，但是农村消费的总体水平及其恩格尔系数仍然处在较低的阶段。文章采用Kaya恒等式的拓展，对模型中的多个变量进行对数平均权重Divisia分解，建立中国农村消费解构模型，将影响消费水平的因素分解为消费结构因素、消费率因素、收入因素及通货膨胀因素，并基于1999～2012年中国农村消费的面板数据进行分析。数据表明：1999～2012年中国农村居民消费的增长速度较快，2000年之前消费率因素对中国农村居民人均消费变化的干预值最大，2001～2012年收入因素对中国农村居民人均消费的干预值与干预率均急剧增大，收入因素在这一时期成为影响消费变化的主因，消费率因素次之。就1999～2012年各因素对中国农村居民消费水平的总体干预值与干预率而言，收入因素的干预值与干预率最大。该文根据数据分析进行相关讨论，认为未来一段时期提高中国农村居民的消费量应当从推动农村居民的消费率与消费结构转变入手，最终实现中国农村居民的消费类型由生存型消费向发展型消费转变。

Abstract:

The total consumption of Chinese rural residents showed a rapid growth trend in recent yearsBut the overall level of Chinese rural residents' spending and rural Engel's Coefficient is still in the low stageAdopting the Kaya identities for the logarithmic average weight Divisia decomposition model of multiple variables，this paper established the Chinese rural consumption deconstruction modelThe factors affecting the level of consumption can be classified into 4 types，ie.，the consumption structure，the consumption rate，income and inflationAfterwards，China's rural consumer panel data of 1999~2012 were analyzed using the modelThe results showed that the growth rate of China's rural residents' consumption was the fastest in 1999～2012.Before 2000，the consumption factors had the greatest intervention on China's rural residents' per capita consumption valueIn the year 2001~2012，the intervention effect of annual income was significantly increasedThe income had become the main reason that resulted in the change of China's rural consumption during this period，while the consumption rate was the second reasonAmong all factors intervening China's rural residents' consumption level in 1999～2012，the income factor made the greatest contribution.Finally，it put forward that it should promote consumption and change the consumption structure of rural residents for the increase of consumption in China，so as to realize the change of Chinese rural residents' consumption type from necessity to development-oriented.