鲁西南连阴雨发生规律及对秋收秋种的影响

LAW OF CONTINUOUS PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON AUTUMN HARVESTING AND PLANTING IN SOUTHWESTERN SHANDONG PROVINCE

关键词:  鲁西南 连阴雨 秋收秋种 发生规律 影响

Key words:  Southwest of Shandong province  continuous precipitation  autumn harvest and seeding  law  influence

摘要:

利用鲁西南1981~2014年连阴雨资料，分析了春、夏、秋季节连阴雨年变化趋势，连阴雨对农作物生长、产量及秋收秋种的影响。结果表明：春季连阴雨有明显减小趋势，夏季连阴雨变化不明显，秋季连阴雨有明显增加趋势；春季发生连阴雨的概率为47%，2年一遇，夏、秋季连阴雨出现概率均为97%，几乎每年一遇；秋季连阴雨对棉花、夏玉米等秋作物危害最大，连阴雨使夏玉米灌浆不足，贪青晚熟，棉铃霉烂，脱落，铃重减轻，造成夏玉米、棉花产量降低、品质下降；月降水量与作物产量相关分析，4月降水量与冬小麦产量呈显著正相关，7、10月降水量与棉花产量呈显著负相关。连阴雨使成熟秋作物不能及时收获、晾晒而霉变，导致秋收秋播相应推迟，晚播冬小麦分蘖少，苗情较差，次年冬小麦产量较低；但播种前适宜的降水也使农田墒情较好，冬小麦苗情较好，壮苗越冬，次年产量增加。

Abstract:

Based on the continuous precipitation data from 1981 to 2014 in Southwestern Shandong Province areas，the variation trends of continuous precipitation of spring，summer，autumn and its influence on growth and yield of crop and autumn harvesting and planting were all analyzed.The results showed that the spring continuous precipitate had a decreasing trend，summer continuous precipitate had no obvious trend，autumn continuous precipitate had significant increasing trend；The probability of continuous precipitate occurred in spring was 47%，the return period was 2a，while the probability of continuous precipitate occurred in summer and autumn was 97%，the return period was 1a；continuous precipitation in autumn damaged yield and quality of cotton and summer maize by making summer filling defects，late maturing，cotton boll mustiness，exfoliated and boll weight loss.Through the correlation analysis of monthly precipitation and crop yield，there was a significant positive correlation between precipitation in April and winter wheat yield，while there was a significant negative correlation between precipitation in July and October and cotton yield.Continuous precipitate resulted in that the autumn crop cannot be timely harvested and dried，autumn harvest and autumn sowing were late，winter wheat tillering was less，and the winter wheat yield was low；but suitable rainfall before winter wheat sowing can promote seedling and increase the yield next year.