1961～2013年菏泽0cm地温变化特征及成因分析

RESPONSES OF GROUND SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON CLIMATIC CHANGE IN HEZE CITY，SHANDONG PROVINCE FROM 1961 TO 2013

关键词:  地面温度 气候倾向率 气候突变 相关分析

Key words:  ground temperature  climate tendency rate  climate abrupt change  correlation analysis

摘要:

利用1961～2013年菏泽地面气象观测站逐日资料，采用气候倾向率和相关分析等方法，分析了近53年菏泽0cm地温的变化趋势以及与气温、日照时数、降水量、水汽压的相关关系。结果表明：近53年来，菏泽年平均地面温度呈极显著上升趋势，平均每10年升高0.22 ℃，冬、春季节的升温对年平均地面温度的升高有主要贡献；年平均地面最高温度呈弱上升趋势且春季显著趋暖、夏季趋凉，年平均地面最低温度呈极显著的上升趋势且冬春季节趋暖；平均地面温度自20世纪90年代中期显著趋暖，地面最低温度的趋暖在平均地面温度的趋暖中起主要贡献；年平均地气温差呈递减趋势，秋冬季节地气温差减小，不利于近地层污染物的扩散，致使菏泽秋冬季霾天气出现多，空气污染加重；近53年来，降水量减少、水汽压极显著增大，导致菏泽地面温度极显著升高，日照时数极显著减少对地面温度升温趋势有弱的减缓作用。

Abstract:

Based on the data of ground temperature in Heze from 1961 to 2013，using the methods of climate tendency rate and correlation analysis，this paper analyzed the variation characteristics of ground temperature，temperature，sunshine times，precipitation and vapor pressure and their relationship in recent 53 years.The results showed that the average ground temperature significantly elevated with the climate tendency rise of 0.22℃/10a in recent 53 years.The temperature rising in winter and spring had major contribution.The highest average ground temperature had a weak rising trend，but the lowest average ground temperature increased significantly.The average ground temperature became warming since the mid-1990s due to the rising of surface minimum temperature.Average air-ground temperature showed decline trend.The air-ground temperature difference in autumn and winter decreased and affected the diffusion of the pollutants from the surface layer，and hence led to more haze weather and air pollution in the autumn and winter.Reduced precipitation and air vapor pressure significantly increase the ground temperature.However，the decrease of sunshine hours significantly caused slow ground temperature warming trend.