基于模糊物元的伊犁水库移民搬迁后扶持效果评价

EFFECT EVALUATION OF YILI RESERVIOR RESETTLTMENT FOLLOW-UP SUPPORT BASED ON FUZZY MATTER ELEMENT THEORY

关键词:  水库移民 后期扶持 模糊综合计算 效果评价 恰甫其海水库

Key words:  reservoir resettlement  follow-up support  fuzzy comprehensive calculation  effect evaluation  Qiapuqihai reservoir

摘要:

为帮助水库移民脱贫致富， 2006年国务院出台了对大中型水库进行后期扶持的政策，以帮助移民改善生活、促进发展。文章以伊犁河谷恰甫其海水库建设而造成的移民搬迁为研究对象，其移民安置区主要分布在察布查尔县、特克斯县和巩留县境内。选取这3个县2005年和2014年的相关数据，即扶持政策实施前后生产、生活水平变化情况，以及对当地基础设施、生存环境带来的影响，构建后期扶持效果评价指标体系，开展基于主成分分析的模糊综合计算，对这3个县10年来的后期扶持效果进行科学评价。结果表明：特克斯县、察布查而县、巩留县的评价等级值分别为1.312、2.151、2.721，巩留县和察布查尔县的评价值都大于2，说明扶持效果好，特克斯县扶持效果一般。总的来说，这3个县的扶持效果都达到预期的水平。后扶政策实施以来，通过资金与项目的扶持以及对移民技能的培训，直接或间接增加了移民的收入，改善了安置区饮水、道路、供电等基础设施条件，维护了库区和移民安置区的稳定，为移民的后续发展奠定了基础。

Abstract:

In order to help the reservoir migrants improve living condition and promote the long-term development, China central government introduced the support policies on the mid-to-large reservoir migrants in 2006. Taking the immigration and resettlement in Qiapuqihai reservoir in Yili River Valley as the research object, which mainly distributed in Chabuchar county, Tekes county and Gongliu county, this paper built an evaluation system using the fuzzy comprehensive calculation analysis, and estimated the effects during the implementation of ten years′ follow-up support policy based on the related data of the three counties in 2005 and 2014, such as the change of immigrants′ production and living standard, and the local infrastructure and survival environment. The results showed that the evaluation values in the county of Tekes, Chabuchar and Gongliu were 1.312, 2.151, and 2.721, respectively. The support effect in the three counties had reached the expected level, of which the Gongliu county and Qapqal county was better. Generally, through the fund and project support and technological training, the policies increased the income of immigrants directly or indirectly, improved the infrastructure in local place such as the project of drinking water, the road, the electricity and so on, maintained the stability of the reservoir and resettlement area, and provided a basis for the development of the resettlement area.