适度粮食安全成本与粮食总产出的实证分析——以江苏省为例

MODEST FOOD SECURITY COST AND FOOD OUTPUT EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS——TAKE JIANGSU PROVINCE FOR AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  粮食安全成本 粮食总产量 回归分析 原因分析 对策

Key words:  food security  grain total output  analysis regression  cause analysis  countermeasures

摘要:

文章从介绍粮食安全成本的相关理论与现实意义出发，对粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定，并对狭义的粮食安全成本与广义的粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定与分析，并对江苏省粮食安全成本与粮食总产量的现状进行了分析与描述。在此基础上，选取2000～2014年粮食总产量与粮食安全成本（政府成本）的相关统计数据，建立样本的回归方程来观察总体的情况，运用Eviews6.0进行计量分析。分析结果表明：江苏省粮食安全成本对粮食产量有显著的影响，但江苏省粮食安全成本投入太多，已经远远超过了经济增长、粮食产量的增长速度，多投入的成本并没有使产量得到预期的增加。对江苏省粮食安全成本高的主要原因归纳为：粮食生产成本高、政府对国有粮企的补贴高、耕地资源不足及流失严重。并提出降低江苏省粮食安全成本的对策是通过实行粮食规模化生产经营降低粮食生产成本、实行国有粮食改革，淘汰僵尸国企以减少政府对国有粮企的财政补贴及实行严格的耕地保护制度。

Abstract:

This paper introduced the theories and practical significance related to the cost of food security.It also defined the connotation of the cost of food security, and then described the present situation of the food security cost and the total grain output in Jiangsu province. On this basis, by selecting 2000～2014 food production and food security cost according to the relative statistic data of the cost (the government), it established the regression equation of the sample using Eviews6.0 econometric analysis. The analysis results showed that the food security cost of grain production in Jiangsu province had a significant impact on grain output, but the cost input was too much and had far exceeded the economic growth and the growth rate of food production. It indicated that more cost input can′t increase the expected yield. The main cause of the high cost of food security in Jiangsu province was summarized as: high cost of grain production, high subsidy for the food company, the loss of cultivated land resource.Finally, it put forward some countermeasures to reduce the cost of food security in Jiangsu province, such as to optimize all kinds of supporting policies, to reduce the cost of production through large-scale production and operation, implement the reform of state-owned grain, reduce government subsidies to state-owned company, and implement strict arable land protection system.