自然降雨与旱地谷子单产水平关系研究——以武安市为例

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN NATURAL RAINFALL AND YIELD OF DRY FOXTAIL MILLET——TAKING WU′AN CITY FOR EXAMPLE

关键词:  降雨量 单产 线性方程 谷子

Key words:  rainfall  yield  linear equation  foxtail millet

摘要:

谷子抗旱性强，水分利用效率高，是我国北方干旱半干旱雨养旱作区的主要杂粮作物。文章主要研究干旱雨养旱作区降雨量对谷子单产的变化规律，从而为提高谷子降水利用效率以及实际生产提供理论依据。基于武安市1983～2012年期间30年的降雨数据和谷子单产数据，研究自然降雨与谷子单产水平关系。采用散点图、建立线性方程、线性回归显著性分析等研究方法，通过统计、对比描述等方式进行分析。结果显示：武安近30年的自然降雨量与谷子的单产之间具有正相关关系，且谷子7、8月份降雨量对其单产具有显著性影响。主要结论：谷子的单产随着降雨量的增加而增加，但不是无限增加，而是有一个最佳降雨临界点490mm； 当降雨量在490mm以内变化时，谷子单产随着降雨量的增加呈现增长的趋势； 当降雨量超过490mm时，谷子的单产与降雨量负相关； 谷子的单产受7月和8月的降雨量影响显著，且2个月降雨量之和占全生育期的63.1%时，谷子的单产较高。

Abstract:

As a drought crop with high water use efficiency, foxtail millet is the main miner crop in the dry and rain-fed area of China, and also an important income source of farmers. The purpose of this article is to study the impact of variation of rainfall on foxtail millet yield in arid region, so as to guide actual production of foxtail millet. Based on the data of rainfall and foxtail millet yield of Wu′an county in 1983-2012, this paper analyzed the relationship between natural rainfall and foxtail millet yield using the methods of scatter diagram, linear equations and linear regression etc. The results showed that the relationship between rainfall and yields of foxtail millet was positive. The rainfall in July and August had a significant influence on the yield. Millet yields increased with the rainfall increasing but not indefinite. The best rainfall critical point was 490mm. When the rainfall was less than 490mm, the yield of foxtail millet increased with the increase of the rainfall, but it decreased when the rainfall was more than 490mm. The foxtail millet had the highest yield when the sum of rainfall in July and August accounted for 63.1% of the whole millet growth period.