农业资源利用与粮食综合生产能力的灰色关联分析——以河北省为例

EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL RESOURCES ON GRAIN PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN HEBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  农业资源利用 粮食综合生产能力 影响因素 灰色关联分析 关联度

Key words:  agricultural resources utilization  the comprehensive grain production capacity  impact factors  grey correlation analysis  connection

摘要:

文章首先对河北省农业资源利用现状进行了分析（主要包括自然资源、经济资源和社会资源），其次对河北省粮食综合生产能力进行了现状分析，在此基础上确定了影响河北省粮食综合生产能力的3类因素10个指标，同时选取2004～2014年上述10个指标的统计数据，运用灰色关联分析法进行分析得出的结论是：农业机械总动力、农用塑料薄膜使用量、农药使用量与粮食总产量高度相关，对提升粮食综合生产能力影响大； 其它影响因素按照关联度由大到小排列为：农用化肥施用折纯量、农业从业人员、农村用电量、人均耕地面积、粮食播种面积、农林牧渔业总产值、水土流失治理面积它们都与粮食产量中度相关，对提升粮食综合生产能力影响较大。最后提出充分利用农业经济资源是促进粮食稳产增产的首要途径、充分利用社会资源是促进粮食稳产高产的重要途径、保护耕地资源是基础等对策。

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the present situation of utilization of agricultural resources (including natural resources, economic resources and social resources), and grain production capacity in Hebei province. And then it determined 10 indexes of five types impacting the comprehensive grain production capacity, and obtained the key influencing factors based on the 10 selected indicators data from 2004-2014 using grey correlative analysis. The results showed that the total power of agricultural machinery, use of plastic film, average temperature, and the use of pesticides were highly correlated with food production and had the largest impact on improving the comprehensive grain production capacity. According to the correlation degree other influencing factors ranked as: agricultural fertilizer use, agricultural workers, the amount of water resources per capita, rural electricity consumption, per capita arable land area, grain sown area, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery output value, annual precipitation, effective irrigation area, soil and water loss governance area, agricultural water consumption, which were moderately correlated with food production. Finally it put forward some countermeasures including making full use of the resources of agricultural economy to promote grain yield, making full use of social resources to promote the high yield, and protecting the arable land resources.