气候变化对农户生计的影响研究综述

A REVIEW: INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FARMERS′ LIVELIHOOD

关键词:  气候变化 生计 农户 可持续生计框架 生态系统服务框架

Key words:  climate change  livelihood  farmers  sustainable livelihood framework  ecosystem services framework

摘要:

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一，加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性，对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著，明确气候变化对农户生计的影响，对于制定有效的气候变化适应政策，增强农户的气候变化适应能力，减轻农村贫困人口生计脆弱性具有重要意义。目前，国内外围绕气候变化对农户生计影响开展了许多研究，主要集中在过去或当前气候变化对水资源、土地、农作物、病虫害、人类健康等农户生计资本的宏观影响以及局地或区域尺度上气候变化对农户生计策略选择的影响等方面。从发展趋势看，亟需开展气候变化对农户生计的影响机理及适应机制研究，建立合理的气候变化对农户生计影响的评估框架，加强对模拟、分析和预测气候变化及其与其他压力相结合对农户生计要素的可能影响进行广泛评估，科学把握农户生计对气候变化脆弱性的关键影响因素，这对人类科学地适应气候变化和促进人类福祉和恢复力的提升具有重大的科学价值和现实意义。

Abstract:

Climate change is one of the most serious challenges in the 21st century which aggravates the fragility of many countries and regions, especially the people who rely on the natural resources for their livelihoods. Therefore, understanding the influence of climate change on farmers′ livelihood is helpful to make effectively climate change adaptation policies, strengthen the farmer′s ability to adapt to climate change, reduce the livelihood vulnerability of rural poverty population, and promote the social and economic sustainable development. This paper reviewed the current researches on the impacts of climate change on farmers′ livelihood. The results showed that the domestic and foreign researches mainly focused on the impacts of climate change on water resources utilization, land productivity, productive of forest vegetation, cropping system, infectious diseases, and farmers livelihood strategy choice. In the future, it is necessary to understand the mechanism of influence and adaptation of climate change on farmers′ livelihood, establish a reasonable assessment framework, seek the key influence factors on farmers′ livelihood vulnerability, and strengthen the studies on the simulation, analysis and prediction of climate change, and the impacts on the farmers livelihood combined with other factors (including social, cultural, institutional, legal, etc.). Therefore, through the application of RS, GIS and GPS technology, statistical analysis, and econometric analysis, combining with the space and time series data of farmers livelihood, it assessed the impact of climate change on farmers′ livelihood under different scenarios. In addition, how to develop, select and implement strategies to improve the farmer′s ability to adapt to the climate change policies, the local land planning, and the water resources management policies or projects would be an important part of research. Moreover, to set up a cooperation platform among different countries, regions, departments and stakeholders, as well as the participation of multidisciplinary comprehensive research systems, was conducive to maximize the utility of information, technology and resources sharing, and promote the human safety, well-being, and quality of life.