城镇化、城乡收入差距与传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间差异——基于ESDA方法和面板DOLS模型的实证研究

URBANIZATION,URBAN-RURAL INCOME GAP AND SPATIAL DISPARITIE OF RURAL SURPLUS LABOR TRANSFER IN TRADITIONAL AGRICULTURAL AREAS

关键词:  城镇化 城乡收入差距 农村剩余劳动力 就地转移

Key words:  urbanization  urban-rural income gap  rural surplus labor  in-situ urbanization

摘要:

伴随着我国新型城镇化建设的推进，农村剩余劳动力向区域中心转移造成传统农业地区出现农村经济“边缘化”和农村人口“空巢化”的危机，因此文章利用河南省60个传统农业县域2000~2014年面板数据，运用Kernel核密度估计、ESDA空间地理统计分析方法和动态DOLS回归分析模型，实证分析了传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间集聚特征以及城乡差距、城镇化对劳动力就地转移的影响力度和方向。研究结果表明：以河南省60个传统农业县为例，受空间近邻效应的影响，传统农区农村剩余劳动力就地转移的空间格局呈现典型的“中心-外围”分布特征，核密度估计结果表明其地域差距在逐步扩大； 城镇化、城乡收入差距对“中心-外围”地区转移模式的影响强度和方向存在着明显的空间异质性，城镇化水平是农村剩余劳动力选择就地非农化最主要的外核拉力，且高值集聚区处于高水平均衡状态；区域中心城市“空间溢出”的非均衡性是造成劳动力就地转移出现极化特征的潜在诱因。上述研究结果意味着，可以通过工业化重心下移、鼓励城乡联营、转变农业生产经营方式等措施提高对农村剩余劳动力就地转移的吸纳能力。

Abstract:

Along with the development of China′s new urbanization,the socio-economic marginalization and empty-nest happened intraditional agriculture districts due to the transfer of the rural surplus labor into center city. Therefore, this paper analyzed the spatial features of the transfer of rural surplus labor, and the effects of the urban-rural gap and urbanization on the transfer of rural surplus laborusing the method of spatial statistical analysis（ESDA）and regression of the dynamic panel data model（DOLS）, based on the geographical spatial data and attribute data of traditional agricultural districts in Henan province from 2000 to 2014. The results showed that due to the effect of space neighbor effect, the spatial features of the transfer of rural surplus labor in traditional agricultural areas showed a "center periphery" polarization mode, the spatial difference of the income was expanding. The urbanization level was the main driving force for the non-agriculturization of local farmers.The regression result of the dynamic panel data model showed a non-linear correlation and obvious spatial heterogeneity among the gap of urban-rural,urbanization and transfer of rural surplus labor force.Finally, it put forward that the absorptive capacity of rural surplus labor force could be improved by moving the industrialization to rural areas, encouraging jointly operation between urban enterprises and the peasants,and changing the model of agricultural production and operation.