基于Tobit模型的低碳经济农业生产率增长影响因素实证研究

AN EMPIRICAL RESEARCH OF GROWTH FACTORS IN LOW-CARBON ECONOMY BASED ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY TOBIT MODEL

关键词:  低碳农业 Tobit模型 农业生产率 生态农业 发展方式

Key words:  low carbon agriculture  tobit model  agricultural productivity  ecological agriculture  development mode

摘要:

改革开放以来，随着中国人口数量的快速增长，导致资源能源的匮乏，由此产生的环境问题也愈来愈严重，农业发展与农村经济的增长在人类社会的发展中有着举重若轻地地位，研究和推广一种农业低碳经济发展模式，对促进中国社会经济稳定协调发展具有深远的意义。文章在前人已有研究数据理论基础上，首先提出推进低碳农业的重要性，并基于我国发展低碳农业过程中存在的一些问题，采用Tobit模型进行量化研究分析低碳经济农业生产率增长影响因素，在实证分析部分分别对1994～2004年与2005～2014年等2个时间阶段影响低碳农业生产率增长的关键因素进行分析。在考虑农业碳排放特征的前提下，分析绿色农业生产率增长因素对低碳经济发展的影响程度及促进作用大小，并且判断未来中国农业经济在不同因素的影响程度下的增长形式，确定推进我国低碳经济的发展的最佳举措，以便将来在选择促进低碳经济发展的道路中提供战略性依据。

Abstract:

Since the reform and opening up, with the rapid growth of the Chinese populationand the scarcity of resources and energy, environmental problem isgetting serious.The research and promotion of the low-carbon agricultural economic development mode has far-reaching significance in promoting China′s social and economic stability. Based on the previous research data and theory, this paper first proposed the importance of promoting low-carbon agriculture and some problems in the development of low-carbon agriculture, and analyzed the impacting factors on agricultural productivity growth using Tobit model during the two periods of 1994-2004 and 2005-2014.Considering the characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions, it analyzed the influence of the green agricultural productivity growth factors on the low carbon economy development, assessed the way of future Chinese agricultural economic growth under the influence of different factors, and determined the best efforts in carbon agricultural economy development. This can provide a strategic basis for the future agriculture in the choice of promoting agriculture in the low carbon economy development path.