1958~2012年河西走廊风能资源时空变化特征及影响因素分析

SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF WIND ENERGY RESOURCES IN HEXI CORRIDOR FROM 1958 TO 2012

关键词:  河西走廊 平均风速 有效风能 气候变化

Key words:  Hexi Corridor  average wind speed  effective wind energy  climate change

摘要:

河西地区是我国重要的风电基地，研究河西地区风速、有效风速时数、有效风能的变化及其影响因素，可为风能资源的开发提供基础参考。文章基于1958~2012年河西地区13个气象站月、日值平均风速，月平均（最低、最高）气温数据，采用M-K非参数检验法、IDW插值法等对近55年风能资源时空变化特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：河西地区年平均风速自西向东递减（-1.25~-7.04）； 各季风速减幅春季＞夏季＞冬季＞秋季，不同站点变化趋势差异较大； 各月平均风速4月最大（3.5m/s），除乌鞘岭、马鬃山外，各站均呈减小趋势； 有效风速时数分布高海拔地区＞走廊西部＞走廊东部＞走廊中部，年、季节有效风速时数以减少趋势为主； 河西地区多年平均有效风能空间分布高海拔地区＞走廊西部＞走廊东部＞走廊中部，年有效风能除乌鞘岭增加外，其他站点均为减少趋势，减幅为走廊西部＞走廊东部＞走廊中部。河西地区气候变暖特别是平均气温的显著升高及大尺度大气环流系统的变化是平均风速和有效风速时数减小的主要因素。

Abstract:

Low-carbon and green development has become an important way for China′s economic development strategy.The wind power as a clean energy plays an important role in the change of energy structure, low-carbon development and green development.Hexi Corridor is the wind energy resource-rich region, and also the ecological fragile area.Therefore, assessing its wind resources and rationally using wind energy has great significance for disaster prevention and improve the local ecological environment. The paper analyzed the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of wind energy resources using the methods of Mann-Kendall Non-parametric test and Inverse Distance Weighted interpolation, based on the monthly and daily value average wind speed data of the 13 stations in Hexi Corridor from 1958 to 2012.The annual average wind speed obviously decreased from west to east(-7.04-1.25); Seasonal average wind speed decreasing width showed spring (-3.1)> summer (-2.5)> winter (-2.3)> autumn (-2.2), and the spatial decreasing trend showed West> east> Central; The maximum monthly average wind speed in April(3.5m/s) showed a decreasing trend except the Wushaoling and Mazongshan weather Stations.The hours distribution trends of the effective wind speed showed high altitude area> western corridor > Eastern Corridor> Central Corridor. The annual effective wind speed hours and seasonal effective wind speed hours all decreased. The decreasing width of seasonal effective wind speed hours was winter (-3.4)> autumn (-3.2)> summer (-2.9)> spring (-2.8).The spatial distribution of the annual effective wind energy was high altitude area> western corridor > Eastern Corridor> Central Corridor in Hexi area. The decreasing width of annual effective wind energy was western corridor >eastern corridor> central corridor. The major factors for the decrease of the average wind speed and the effective wind speed hours were local warming and change of the large-scale atmospheric circulation system. The average wind speed, the number of effective wind speed, and effective wind energy all showed decreasing trends in Hexi Corridor that had significant negative impact on the use of wind energy. It concluded that it should strengthen the prediction of wind speed and wind energy resource assessment.