基于ESDA的农村城镇化发展空间格局分析——以河南省为例

SPATIAL PATTERN OF RURAL URBANIZATION IN HENAN PROVINCE BASED ON ESDA

关键词:  ESDA 城镇化 空间格局 河南

Key words:  ESDA  urbanization  spatial pattern  Henan

摘要:

随着社会生产力的进步，农村城镇化发展称为必然，而如今城镇化水平的高低已经成为一个地区社会经济发展水平的重要衡量标准。研究利用河南省统计年鉴等资料11年来对河南省18个县市城市和乡村人口变化的统计数据，以城市化率为测度指标，将传统统计学方法与探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）法相结合，通过计算全局空间自相关指标和局部空间自相关指标，探讨河南省农村城镇化发展存在的差异性，并对差异原因进行了分析，结果表明： （1）河南省农村城镇化发展水平总体表现为上升趋势，其中豫中和豫西城市化率较高，豫南和豫东城市化率较低，但增长速度较快； （2）各区域内农村城镇化发展空间差异较大，豫中表现最为明显，但总体呈现不断缩小的趋势； （3）2004～2014年间，Moran’I由0441 1上升到0453 2，表明河南省农村城镇化格局的空间集聚性在不断加强，农村城镇化结构化特征明显。（4）从局域空间自相关分析，河南省城市布局基本合理，但是农村城镇化发展存在一定的不平衡性，需要加大辐射范围。

Abstract:

Urbanization is a product of the social development, the level of urbanization has become one of most important symbols to measure the level of region's social and economic development. Based on the data of population from Henan Statistical Yearbook in 18 counties and cities of Henan province from 2004 to 2014, this paper investigated the difference of rural urbanization development by calculating the global spatial autocorrelation indicators and local spatial autocorrelation indicators, using the methods of traditional statistical methods and exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA). The results showed that:(1) The urbanization level of rural areas was enhanced, the urbanization rate in central and west regions were higher than that in south and east regions; (2) The spatial difference of rural urbanization in each region was obvious, but the overall trend was decreasing ; (3) The Moran'I increased from 0.4411 to 0.4532 in 2004-2014, which indicated that the spatial agglomeration of rural urbanization pattern was continuously strengthened, and the spatial distribution of urbanization pattern of rural areas was gradually promoted. (4) According to local spatial autocorrelation analysis, the urban layout of Henan province was basically reasonable, but there was a certain imbalance in the development of rural urbanization.