江苏省废污水排放驱动因素及脱钩效应——基于STIRPAT模型和OECD脱钩指数的研究

DRIVERS OF EFFLUENT SEWAGE AND DECOUPLING EFFECT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE：BASED ON STIRPAT MODEl AND OECD DECOUPLING INDEX

关键词:  废污水 STIRPAT模型 偏最小二乘回归 脱钩

Key words:  effluent sewage  STIRPAT model  Partial Least Square Regression  decoupling

摘要:

科学研究表明人类活动影响着水环境，但具体有哪些因素，这些因素又如何影响着水环境，却很难精确地量化，原因就在于缺乏一个合适的分析工具。STIRPAT随机模型可用于分解人口、富裕度、技术发展对资源环境压力的影响程度。各影响因素间难免存在多重共线性，偏最小二乘回归方法估计参数可解决STIRPAT模型中多重共线性的问题。研究结果表明：人类活动对水资源环境的压力主要体现在人口和产业结构方面。人口增长、非服务业产值比重增加是带来废污水排放更大程度增长的主要因素，使得水资源环境遭受巨大压力。减少经济发展对水资源的依赖，能从源头上减少水资源污染压力，借助OECD脱钩指数分析江苏省经济发展与水资源耗费之间的“脱钩”关系。研究结果表明单位产出水资源耗费逐年下降，经济发展与用水量之间“相对脱钩”关系占大多数，“绝对脱钩”关系次之，其他类型关系很少，且趋向“脱钩”，但并未达到最理想的状态，经济增长与水资源污染之间并未出现环境库兹涅茨曲线。水资源短缺压力依然存在，应从生活污水处理、节约用水、进一步调整产业结构角度去制定对策。

Abstract:

Despite the scientific consensus that humans have dramatically altered the water environment, we know little about the specific forces driving those impacts and how they affected because of the absence of a refined analytic tools. As a stochastic model, STIRPAT can be used to compute the ecological elasticity of population, affluence and other factors, however,it is inevitable that there will be multiple co linearity among the various influencing factors, and partial least squares can be adopted to reduce problems with co-linearity of the model. Results showed that the pressure of anthropogenic activities on water resources mainly reflected in the aspects of the population and industrial structure. Quantity of waste water effluent was growing faster than population growth and percent of GDP, which made great pressure to water resources. Suitable reduction of water use could reduce discharge of waste water from the source. Through the analysis of the decoupling relationship between economic development and water resources consumption in Jiangsu province by OECD decoupling index, it showed that water consumption per unit of output decreased year by year. "Relative decoupling" relationship predominated, followed by "absolute decoupling" relationship, other types of relationships rarely tended to be "decoupled", but it did not reach the ideal state, and environmental Kuznets curve did not appear. It should make efforts to develop countermeasures from the perspective of domestic sewage treatment, water conservation, and further adjustment of industrial structure.